Trevor Lawrence's rushing yards props present a clear under opportunity with just 40.9% overs across 22 games. His 15.86 yard average barely exceeds typical 14.45 lines, while under betting delivers +12.8% ROI versus -21.9% for overs. The current three-game under streak reinforces this systematic edge.
Expert Analysis
Lawrence's rushing profile reveals a quarterback whose mobility serves primarily as a pocket escape valve rather than a designed rushing weapon. His 15.86 yard average reflects sporadic scrambles and quarterback sneaks rather than consistent designed runs, creating inflated public perception around his rushing floor. The stark ROI differential (+12.8% under vs -21.9% over) indicates oddsmakers consistently set lines that overvalue Lawrence's rushing upside, likely influenced by his athletic reputation from Clemson. Jacksonville's pass-heavy offensive philosophy under recent coordinators limits designed quarterback runs, while Lawrence's pocket presence has improved significantly, reducing panic scrambles that previously inflated his rushing totals. The three-game under streak isn't coincidental—it reflects Lawrence's evolution into a more traditional pocket passer who uses his legs strategically rather than frequently. His rushing yards often come in chunks during specific game scripts (trailing late, red zone situations), making the prop inherently volatile and difficult to project consistently. The 40.9% over rate across 22 games represents a large enough sample to trust, especially when combined with the negative ROI for over bettors.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Lawrence's systematic underperformance against rushing lines creates a sustainable edge, particularly given Jacksonville's pass-first offensive identity. Target this prop when lines sit at 14.5 or higher, as his 15.86 average provides minimal cushion. The primary risk involves garbage time scrambles or unexpected designed runs in specific matchups, but the data strongly favors consistent under betting.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 13.5 | 6.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 12.5 | 8.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 12.5 | 10.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 12.5 | 13.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 10.5 | 17.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 14.5 | 4.0 | -10.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 14.5 | 5.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-23 | OPP | 16.5 | 3.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 14.5 | 45.0 | +30.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 16.5 | 8.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 13.5 | 41.0 | +27.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-04 | OPP | 13.5 | 8.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-26 | OPP | 16.5 | 0.0 | -16.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 11.5 | 17.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 16.5 | 7.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Rushing Yards Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Trevor Lawrence's Rushing Yards prop record all games?
Lawrence's rushing yards props show a 9-13-0 record (40.9% overs) across 22 games from September 2023 to December 2024. Under bettors have achieved +12.8% ROI while over bettors face -21.9% losses, indicating consistent line inflation.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Trevor Lawrence Rushing Yards all games?
Bet UNDER on Lawrence's rushing yards props. His 40.9% over rate and superior under ROI (+12.8%) create a systematic edge. Target lines at 14.5+ yards where his 15.86 average provides minimal over cushion.
What's Trevor Lawrence's average Rushing Yards all games?
Lawrence averages 15.86 rushing yards across all games, just 1.4 yards above the typical 14.45 line. This thin margin explains why unders hit 59.1% of the time, as even minor game script variations favor the under.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Lawrence rushing unders when lines reach 14.5+ yards, especially in games where Jacksonville projects to lead or play from ahead. Avoid in potential blowout losses where garbage time scrambles could inflate his total unexpectedly.