Trevor Lawrence has been a consistent under performer in passing yards, hitting just 30% of overs across his last 10 games while averaging 204.5 yards against a 227.6 line. This -23.1 yard differential represents a clear market inefficiency worth exploiting on the under.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a stark picture of Trevor Lawrence's recent aerial struggles, with the Jacksonville quarterback consistently falling short of market expectations. His 30% over rate across 10 games isn't just bad luck—it reflects systemic issues in Jacksonville's offensive approach and execution. The 23.1-yard average shortfall suggests oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to Lawrence's current reality, creating sustained value on unders. The Jaguars' offensive line struggles have forced quicker releases and shorter routes, while their ground game emphasis has reduced Lawrence's volume in favorable passing situations. Most telling is the consistency of this trend, with Lawrence managing just two consecutive overs at his peak while recording a devastating four-game under streak. The +33.6% ROI on unders demonstrates this isn't variance—it's a legitimate edge. Jacksonville's conservative game management in close contests and Lawrence's accuracy issues on intermediate routes have created a perfect storm for under bettors. While regression is always possible, the underlying factors suggest this trend has staying power through the remainder of the season.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Trevor Lawrence's 23.1-yard average shortfall represents a clear market inefficiency that shows no signs of correcting. The Jaguars' offensive limitations and Lawrence's current form make unders the superior play, particularly when the line exceeds 220 yards. The main risk is a potential shootout scenario, but Jacksonville's conservative approach minimizes this threat.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 209.5 | 41.0 | -168.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 214.5 | 169.0 | -45.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 237.5 | 308.0 | +70.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 229.5 | 193.0 | -36.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 228.5 | 234.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 234.5 | 371.0 | +136.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 223.5 | 169.0 | -54.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-23 | OPP | 220.5 | 178.0 | -42.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 224.5 | 220.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 253.5 | 162.0 | -91.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Trevor Lawrence's Passing Yards prop record last 10 games?
Trevor Lawrence has gone under his passing yards prop in 7 of his last 10 games, posting a dismal 30% over rate. He's averaging just 204.5 yards per game against market lines of 227.6, creating a significant 23.1-yard shortfall that unders bettors have capitalized on.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Trevor Lawrence Passing Yards last 10 games?
Bet the under on Trevor Lawrence passing yards props. His consistent 23.1-yard shortfall below market lines and 70% under rate over 10 games represents a clear edge. The +33.6% ROI on unders compared to -42.7% on overs makes this decision straightforward.
What's Trevor Lawrence's average Passing Yards last 10 games?
Trevor Lawrence is averaging 204.5 passing yards over his last 10 games, which falls 23.1 yards short of the average market line of 227.6. This substantial gap between performance and expectations has created consistent value for under bettors throughout this sample.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Trevor Lawrence under bets when his line exceeds 220 yards, as the gap between market expectations and reality widens. His struggles are most pronounced in standard game scripts, making unders particularly valuable when Jacksonville isn't projected to be in obvious catch-up mode.