Trevor Lawrence's passing touchdown prop at home presents a clear under opportunity, hitting just 38.5% over rates across 13 games. The Jaguars quarterback averages only 1.08 passing touchdowns per home game against typical 1.5 lines, creating a -0.4 differential that translates to consistent under value.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a compelling story about Lawrence's home touchdown production that contradicts conventional wisdom about quarterbacks performing better at home. His 1.08 average against 1.5 lines represents a significant 28% shortfall that has persisted across multiple seasons and coaching changes. The consistency of this underperformance suggests structural issues rather than random variance. Jacksonville's offensive struggles at TIAA Bank Field likely stem from predictable game scripts where opponents often build leads, forcing the Jaguars into catch-up mode that favors volume passing over red zone efficiency. Lawrence's arm talent generates yards between the twenties, but the team's red zone execution remains problematic at home. The -26.6% ROI on overs versus +17.5% on unders demonstrates how the market consistently overvalues his touchdown upside in familiar surroundings. With a current streak of one under and historical streaks reaching three consecutive unders, the pattern shows remarkable persistence. The lack of recent regression toward his career norms suggests this isn't a temporary slump but rather a fundamental characteristic of how Lawrence and the Jaguars offense operate at home.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 38.5% over rate and -0.4 differential create legitimate value on Lawrence passing touchdown unders at home. Target spots where the line sits at 1.5, as his 1.08 average provides the strongest edge. Main risk involves potential offensive coordinator changes or improved red zone personnel, but the trend's persistence across different contexts suggests structural factors that won't disappear overnight.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 13 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Trevor Lawrence's Passing TDs prop record home games?
Trevor Lawrence's passing touchdown prop record in home games stands at 5-8-0 over/under, hitting the over just 38.5% of the time across 13 games from September 2023 through December 2024, creating consistent under value.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Trevor Lawrence Passing TDs home games?
Bet under on Trevor Lawrence's passing touchdowns in home games. His 1.08 average significantly trails typical 1.5 lines, and under bets have generated +17.5% ROI compared to -26.6% losses on overs.
What's Trevor Lawrence's average Passing TDs home games?
Trevor Lawrence averages 1.08 passing touchdowns per home game, creating a -0.4 differential against standard 1.5 lines. This 28% shortfall below the typical betting number represents his most consistent home trend.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Trevor Lawrence passing touchdown unders when the line sits at 1.5 touchdowns for home games. His structural red zone struggles at TIAA Bank Field create the best value against this specific number.