Tony Pollard's rushing yards props in divisional games present a modest edge toward the over, hitting at 54.5% with an average of 72.27 yards against lines averaging 65.32. The +7.0 differential and positive 4.1% ROI on overs suggest slight value, though recent cooling with two straight unders warrants caution.
Expert Analysis
Tony Pollard's divisional rushing performance reveals a player who consistently exceeds modest market expectations, averaging 72.27 yards against lines set at 65.32. This +7.0 differential suggests oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to Pollard's ability to exploit familiar defensive schemes within the AFC South. Divisional games often feature more conservative game scripts and predictable matchups, conditions that typically favor workhorse backs like Pollard who can grind out yardage through volume rather than explosive plays. The 54.5% over rate across 11 games indicates legitimate edge rather than random variance, though the margin isn't overwhelming. The positive 4.1% ROI on overs validates this as a profitable long-term approach, while the concerning -13.2% under ROI highlights the cost of fading this trend. However, the current two-game under streak following a dominant six-game over run suggests potential regression. Pollard's success likely stems from increased familiarity with divisional opponents' tendencies and Tennessee's commitment to establishing the ground game in these crucial matchups. The lack of split data limits deeper analysis, but the consistency of outperforming lines indicates sustainable factors beyond mere luck.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The +7.0 average differential and 4.1% ROI on overs indicate genuine value in divisional matchups where Pollard consistently exceeds conservative market expectations. Target games where Tennessee needs to control clock and establish ground game against familiar opponents. Main risk is the current two-game under streak suggesting potential short-term regression from the strong historical performance.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 11 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 86.5 | 62.0 | -24.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 61.5 | 35.0 | -26.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 68.5 | 102.0 | +33.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 60.5 | 119.0 | +58.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 64.5 | 93.0 | +28.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-07 | OPP | 61.5 | 70.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-10 | OPP | 56.5 | 59.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-23 | OPP | 64.5 | 79.0 | +14.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 69.5 | 55.0 | -14.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-05 | OPP | 53.5 | 51.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-10 | OPP | 71.5 | 70.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Rushing Yards Prop Lines
Compare Tony Pollard props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tony Pollard's Rushing Yards prop record divisional games?
Tony Pollard has gone over his rushing yards prop in 6 of 11 divisional games (54.5%), averaging 72.27 yards against lines set at 65.32. This creates a consistent +7.0 differential favoring overs.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tony Pollard Rushing Yards divisional games?
Lean toward betting over on Tony Pollard's rushing yards in divisional games. The +7.0 average differential and 4.1% ROI on overs indicate genuine value, though recent two-game under streak warrants measured approach.
What's Tony Pollard's average Rushing Yards divisional games?
Tony Pollard averages 72.27 rushing yards in divisional games, significantly outpacing his average line of 65.32 yards. This +7.0 differential represents consistent value that oddsmakers haven't fully recognized in AFC South matchups.
How reliable is this trend?
Target divisional games where Tennessee needs to control tempo and establish ground game. Pollard's familiarity with AFC South opponents creates advantages, though avoid betting during current under streak until trend reverses.