Tony Pollard's rushing yards props present a clear under opportunity with just 41.2% overs across 34 games. His 62.94 average nearly matches the 63.18 line, but the -21.4% over ROI versus +12.3% under ROI reveals consistent market inefficiency favoring the under.
Expert Analysis
Tony Pollard's rushing yards props demonstrate a persistent market overcorrection that sharp bettors can exploit. The Tennessee back averages 62.94 yards against lines averaging 63.18, creating a microscopic 0.2-yard deficit that masks a significant betting edge. The 41.2% over rate across 34 games isn't random variance—it reflects systematic factors working against Pollard's rushing production. His transition from Dallas to Tennessee brought new offensive schemes and usage patterns that books haven't fully adjusted for. The Titans' pass-heavy approach under different game scripts limits Pollard's volume compared to his Cowboys days, where he operated as a change-of-pace back behind Ezekiel Elliott. The current seven-game under streak and previous seven-game under streak highlight how consistently Pollard falls short of inflated expectations. Books appear to price him based on explosive potential rather than consistent volume, creating recurring value on the under. The +12.3% under ROI versus -21.4% over ROI quantifies this edge perfectly—betting overs destroys bankrolls while unders generate steady profits. Pollard's 14-20 under record isn't a fluke; it's a reflection of realistic production levels versus optimistic market pricing that consistently overestimates his rushing output in Tennessee's offensive system.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Tony Pollard's 58.8% under rate and +12.3% under ROI create a sustainable edge against consistently inflated lines. The market hasn't adjusted to his reduced volume role in Tennessee's offense, making unders the preferred play. Primary risk involves explosive games where Pollard breaks tendency, but the seven-game under streak suggests this pattern remains intact.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 86.5 | 62.0 | -24.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 61.5 | 35.0 | -26.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 65.5 | 45.0 | -20.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 68.5 | 102.0 | +33.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 69.5 | 35.0 | -34.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 60.5 | 119.0 | +58.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 55.5 | 15.0 | -40.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 64.5 | 44.0 | -20.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 68.5 | 128.0 | +59.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 61.5 | 94.0 | +32.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 68.5 | 61.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 64.5 | 93.0 | +28.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-30 | OPP | 51.5 | 88.0 | +36.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 63.5 | 14.0 | -49.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 50.5 | 62.0 | +11.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tony Pollard's Rushing Yards prop record all games?
Tony Pollard's rushing yards props show a 14-20-0 record across 34 games, hitting the over just 41.2% of the time. This 58.8% under rate demonstrates consistent market overvaluation of his rushing production in Tennessee's offensive system.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tony Pollard Rushing Yards all games?
Bet under on Tony Pollard's rushing yards props. The 58.8% under rate and +12.3% under ROI create a clear edge, while over bets lose money at -21.4% ROI. His current seven-game under streak reinforces this trend.
What's Tony Pollard's average Rushing Yards all games?
Tony Pollard averages 62.94 rushing yards across all games, falling just 0.24 yards short of his average line of 63.18. This minimal deficit masks the significant 58.8% under rate that creates betting value for sharp players.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Tony Pollard rushing yards unders during his current form, as he's hit seven straight unders. The Tennessee offense consistently limits his volume, making unders profitable regardless of specific game conditions or matchups.