Taysom Hill's rushing yards prop shows consistent value on overs, hitting 54.5% with an impressive +11.1 yard average differential above the typical 20.41 line. His unique hybrid role generates reliable ground production that books consistently undervalue. Lean over on his rushing yards in standard game scripts.
Expert Analysis
Hill's rushing yards prop represents one of the more reliable edges in player markets, driven by his singular role in the Saints offense. The +11.1 differential between his 31.55 average and the 20.41 line reflects books struggling to properly price a player who defies traditional positional boundaries. Hill's rushing production stems from designed quarterback packages, red zone wildcats, and situational direct snaps that create consistent weekly floors regardless of his listed position. The 54.5% over rate with positive ROI indicates sustainable value rather than variance-driven results. His rushing attempts correlate strongly with Saints offensive efficiency, as New Orleans deploys Hill's legs when they need reliable short-yardage conversions and goal-line scores. The key factor driving this edge is positional arbitrage—Hill generates quarterback-level rushing volume while being priced like a traditional tight end. Books appear anchored to his receiving role when setting lines, consistently underweighting his designed carries. The lack of extreme volatility in his usage suggests coaching staff commitment to his ground game regardless of game flow. Risk factors include potential injury management as the season progresses and possible reduced packages if the Saints fall out of playoff contention, but his rushing role has remained remarkably stable across different offensive coordinators and game situations.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Hill's hybrid usage creates a consistent pricing inefficiency that books haven't corrected despite his reliable ground production. Target overs when the Saints are competitive and Hill is healthy, as his designed rushing packages remain a core offensive element. Main risk is late-season usage reduction if playoff hopes fade, but his current role sustainability makes overs the preferred side.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 11 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 28.5 | 10.0 | -18.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 23.5 | 138.0 | +114.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 27.5 | 14.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 14.5 | 20.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 15.5 | 18.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-21 | OPP | 18.5 | 2.0 | -16.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-03 | OPP | 23.5 | 59.0 | +35.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-26 | OPP | 18.5 | 26.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 21.5 | 6.0 | -15.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-05 | OPP | 17.5 | 52.0 | +34.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-15 | OPP | 15.5 | 2.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Rushing Yards Prop Lines
Compare Taysom Hill props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Taysom Hill's Rushing Yards prop record all games?
Hill's rushing yards prop has gone over in 6 of 11 games (54.5%) this season. He averages 31.55 rushing yards per game against typical lines around 20.41, creating consistent value for over bettors with a +4.1% ROI on the over side.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Taysom Hill Rushing Yards all games?
Bet over on Hill's rushing yards props. His unique hybrid role generates 11.1 more yards than books price on average, with overs hitting 54.5% of the time. The consistent usage in designed rushing packages creates reliable weekly floors that justify over positions.
What's Taysom Hill's average Rushing Yards all games?
Hill averages 31.55 rushing yards per game this season, significantly outpacing the typical 20.41 line by 11.1 yards. This substantial differential reflects books undervaluing his designed carries and quarterback-style rushing packages that create consistent weekly production floors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Hill rushing overs when the Saints are competitive and he's fully healthy. His designed packages remain consistent regardless of game script, but avoid late-season spots if New Orleans falls out of playoff contention, as usage could decline in meaningless games.