Tank Bigsby has gone over his rushing yards prop in exactly 50% of his last 10 games (5-5 record), averaging 53.3 yards against a 45.1 average line for a solid +8.2 differential. Despite the positive yardage differential, both sides show identical -4.5% ROI, suggesting market efficiency has caught up to his production.
Expert Analysis
Tank Bigsby's 50% over rate masks a more complex story about Jacksonville's evolving backfield usage and game script dependencies. The +8.2 yard differential above his average line indicates consistent production that exceeds market expectations, yet the neutral ROI suggests books have adjusted accordingly. Bigsby's rushing output appears heavily influenced by game flow, with his role expanding in competitive games where Jacksonville maintains rushing attack viability. The absence of extreme streaks (longest runs of just 2 games either direction) points to week-to-week volatility rather than sustained trends. His current single-game under streak isn't statistically significant given the small sample. The key concern is Jacksonville's inconsistent offensive line play and Trevor Lawrence's health affecting overall offensive rhythm. When the Jaguars fall behind early, Bigsby's touches diminish rapidly as they abandon the ground game. However, in neutral or positive game scripts, his combination of power running and goal-line opportunities creates ceiling games that can easily clear modest prop totals. The market appears to have found equilibrium pricing, making situational analysis more critical than blind trend following.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The +8.2 yard differential above average lines suggests consistent value despite the neutral record. Target Bigsby overs in games where Jacksonville projects to stay competitive or faces weaker run defenses. The main risk is negative game script forcing early abandonment of the rushing attack, but his goal-line role provides floor even in difficult matchups.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 46.5 | 33.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 44.5 | 50.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 53.5 | 42.0 | -11.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 34.5 | 55.0 | +20.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 37.5 | 28.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 44.5 | 4.0 | -40.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 64.5 | 78.0 | +13.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 58.5 | 118.0 | +59.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 40.5 | 24.0 | -16.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 26.5 | 101.0 | +74.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Rushing Yards Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tank Bigsby's Rushing Yards prop record last 10 games?
Tank Bigsby has gone 5-5 on rushing yards overs in his last 10 games, hitting exactly 50% of his props while averaging 53.3 yards against a 45.1 average line for a positive +8.2 differential.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tank Bigsby Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Lean over on Tank Bigsby rushing yards props, particularly in competitive game environments. The +8.2 yard differential above his lines shows consistent value, but avoid when Jacksonville projects to trail significantly and abandon the run game.
What's Tank Bigsby's average Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Tank Bigsby has averaged 53.3 rushing yards over his last 10 games compared to his average prop line of 45.1 yards, creating a favorable +8.2 yard differential that suggests books are undervaluing his production.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Tank Bigsby rushing yards overs when Jacksonville faces weaker run defenses or projects to stay competitive. Avoid when the Jaguars are heavy underdogs, as negative game script rapidly diminishes his touch volume and ceiling.