Stefon Diggs has hit the over on receiving yards just 50% of the time over his last 10 games, with his 56.9-yard average falling 2.2 yards short of typical lines. The neutral hit rate masks concerning underperformance that suggests value on the under.
Expert Analysis
Stefon Diggs's receiving yards performance reveals a player trending below market expectations despite his elite reputation. The 56.9-yard average against 59.1-yard lines represents consistent underperformance that books haven't fully adjusted for. This 2.2-yard differential might seem marginal, but it's significant in the tight margins of receiving yards props. The balanced 5-5 over-under record disguises the fact that Diggs is averaging nearly four percent below his typical lines, suggesting oddsmakers are still pricing him based on past production rather than current form. His streak patterns show volatility with both four-game over and under runs, indicating he's capable of hot and cold stretches rather than consistent production. The lack of dominant over performance (50% hit rate) from a receiver of Diggs's caliber suggests either declining target share, efficiency issues, or game script factors limiting his ceiling. Without injury concerns or obvious external factors, this underperformance likely reflects his integration into Houston's offensive system or natural aging curve effects. The negative ROI on both sides indicates the market has been relatively efficient, but the consistent average shortfall suggests books are slow to adjust their baseline expectations for Diggs in his new environment.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 2.2-yard average shortfall indicates books are still overvaluing Diggs based on reputation rather than current production. Target under bets when lines exceed 58 yards, as he's consistently falling short of market expectations. Main risk is positive regression if Houston's passing game finds more rhythm or Diggs recaptures his prime form.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 59.5 | 81.0 | +21.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 67.5 | 23.0 | -44.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 63.5 | 77.0 | +13.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 56.5 | 82.0 | +25.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 61.5 | 69.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 48.5 | 94.0 | +45.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 50.5 | 37.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 58.5 | 33.0 | -25.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-21 | OPP | 59.5 | 21.0 | -38.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-15 | OPP | 65.5 | 52.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Stefon Diggs's Receiving Yards prop record last 10 games?
Stefon Diggs has gone over his receiving yards prop in exactly 5 of his last 10 games for a 50% hit rate. His 5-5-0 record shows perfectly balanced results with no clear directional edge.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Stefon Diggs Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Lean under on Stefon Diggs receiving yards props. His 56.9-yard average falls 2.2 yards short of typical 59.1-yard lines, indicating consistent underperformance that books haven't fully adjusted for yet.
What's Stefon Diggs's average Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Stefon Diggs is averaging 56.9 receiving yards over his last 10 games compared to typical lines around 59.1 yards. This 2.2-yard shortfall represents consistent underperformance against market expectations.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Stefon Diggs under bets when lines exceed 58 yards, as he's consistently falling short of elevated expectations. Avoid betting his props in potential shootout spots where positive regression becomes more likely.