Sam LaPorta's reception props present a classic coin-flip scenario with a 50% over rate across his last 10 games, though he's averaging 4.6 receptions against a 4.0 line. The tight end is currently riding a three-game over streak, but the -4.5% ROI on both sides suggests this market is efficiently priced with minimal edge.
Expert Analysis
LaPorta's reception totals reveal a perfectly balanced market that's been remarkably efficient at pricing his involvement. The 4.6 average against a 4.0 line creates a modest 0.6 reception cushion, but the symmetrical -4.5% ROI on both sides indicates books have calibrated this number precisely. The current three-game over streak follows a four-game under streak, highlighting the volatility inherent in tight end usage patterns. Detroit's offensive system under Ben Johnson utilizes LaPorta as both a safety valve and red zone threat, but his target share fluctuates based on game script and opponent coverage schemes. The lack of meaningful splits data suggests his production isn't heavily dependent on specific matchup conditions, which actually supports the market's efficiency. Without clear situational edges or usage trends, this becomes a pure variance play where recent momentum carries minimal predictive value. The 5-5 split perfectly encapsulates how tight end reception props can swing wildly based on defensive attention to other skill position players and in-game flow.
Betting Verdict
PASS with LOW confidence. While LaPorta's three-game over streak might tempt momentum bettors, the perfectly balanced 5-5 record and symmetrical negative ROI indicate an efficiently priced market with no clear edge. The 0.6 reception cushion above the line provides modest over value, but without situational splits or usage trends to exploit, this becomes a coin flip with juice working against you.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 4.5 | 7.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-30 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 3.5 | 7.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-05 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-28 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Sam LaPorta's Receptions prop record last 10 games?
Sam LaPorta has gone over his receptions prop in exactly 5 of his last 10 games for a 50% success rate, with the under also hitting 5 times, creating a perfectly balanced 5-5-0 record.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Sam LaPorta Receptions last 10 games?
Pass on LaPorta's receptions props. The 5-5 record with -4.5% ROI on both sides indicates an efficiently priced market with no clear edge, making this a pure coin flip with juice.
What's Sam LaPorta's average Receptions last 10 games?
LaPorta is averaging 4.6 receptions over his last 10 games compared to the typical 4.0 line, providing a modest 0.6 reception cushion that suggests slight over value in theory.
How reliable is this trend?
Avoid LaPorta reception props entirely given the lack of situational edges. Without meaningful splits data or usage trends, timing becomes irrelevant in this efficiently priced, high-variance market.