Sam LaPorta's receiving yards props present a compelling over opportunity with a 61.8% hit rate across 34 games (21-13 record). The Lions tight end averages 51.85 yards against lines averaging 43.32, creating an 8.5-yard edge that translates to +17.9% ROI on overs.
Expert Analysis
LaPorta's consistent over performance stems from Detroit's pass-heavy offensive identity and his role as a primary target in their high-octane system. The 8.5-yard differential between his average production and typical lines suggests oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his elite usage patterns since entering the league. This isn't a small sample fluke—across 34 games, LaPorta has demonstrated remarkable consistency in exceeding expectations, with the Lions' commitment to involving tight ends in their aerial attack creating sustainable volume. The current three-game over streak aligns with his historical patterns, as his longest over streak reached four games while under streaks maxed at three, indicating natural variance rather than systematic shifts. Detroit's offensive pace and red zone target share for LaPorta remain key drivers, as the Lions consistently rank among the league's most pass-attempt-heavy teams. The -27.0% ROI on unders reinforces how difficult it is to bet against LaPorta's production, particularly given his target competition and the Lions' tendency to throw frequently regardless of game script. With no concerning injury history or usage decline, this trend appears sustainable rather than due for regression.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 61.8% hit rate and 8.5-yard average differential create a meaningful edge, though the lack of recent form data prevents a stronger conviction play. Target LaPorta overs when lines sit at or below 43 yards, as his 51.85 average provides solid cushion. Main risk involves potential game script concerns in blowout scenarios, but Detroit's offensive philosophy typically maintains passing volume regardless of score.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 49.5 | 51.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 51.5 | 63.0 | +11.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-30 | OPP | 44.5 | 64.0 | +19.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 45.5 | 43.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 38.5 | 111.0 | +72.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-05 | OPP | 37.5 | 54.0 | +16.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-28 | OPP | 37.5 | 6.0 | -31.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 35.5 | 19.0 | -16.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 34.5 | 66.0 | +31.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 42.5 | 28.0 | -14.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 33.5 | 48.0 | +14.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 42.5 | 25.0 | -17.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 40.5 | 52.0 | +11.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-30 | OPP | 39.5 | 53.0 | +13.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 43.5 | 36.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Sam LaPorta's Receiving Yards prop record all games?
Sam LaPorta's receiving yards props show a 21-13 over record across 34 games, hitting at 61.8%. This translates to +17.9% ROI on overs while unders produce -27.0% ROI, demonstrating consistent market inefficiency in his favor.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Sam LaPorta Receiving Yards all games?
Bet over on LaPorta's receiving yards props. His 61.8% over rate and 8.5-yard average differential above typical lines create a sustainable edge. Target overs when lines are 43 yards or below for maximum value.
What's Sam LaPorta's average Receiving Yards all games?
LaPorta averages 51.85 receiving yards per game across his 34-game sample. This sits 8.5 yards above his average line of 43.32, creating consistent value for over bettors who capitalize on this differential.
How reliable is this trend?
Best opportunities arise when LaPorta's receiving yards line sits at 43 yards or below, maximizing the 8.5-yard cushion his average provides. Target games where Detroit's offensive pace projects high, regardless of opponent strength.