Sam Howell's passing touchdown props present a compelling under opportunity with just 30% overs hitting over his last 10 games. The Seahawks quarterback averaged only 1.2 touchdowns against a 1.3 line, creating a -0.1 differential that generated +33.6% ROI on unders. This represents a clear fade opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Sam Howell's touchdown production reveals a quarterback struggling with red zone efficiency and volume limitations that make his props consistently overvalued. The 30% over rate across 10 games isn't a small sample fluke—it reflects systematic issues with Seattle's offensive approach and Howell's role within it. The -0.1 average differential against the line demonstrates oddsmakers consistently pricing his touchdown potential too high, likely influenced by his occasional explosive performances that mask more frequent quiet outings. The six-game under streak that dominated this sample suggests Howell faces consistent constraints, whether from game script, red zone playcalling, or simple touchdown variance working against inflated lines. The +33.6% ROI on unders represents genuine market inefficiency, as books appear slow to adjust to Howell's touchdown ceiling. Most telling is how rarely Howell exceeded expectations—just three times in 10 games—indicating this isn't about bad luck but rather structural limitations in his touchdown upside. The pattern suggests oddsmakers price Howell based on his ceiling rather than his median outcome, creating systematic value on the under.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 30% over rate combined with +33.6% under ROI creates clear value, but the 10-game sample requires caution. Target Howell touchdown unders when the line sits at 1.5 or higher, as his 1.2 average suggests consistent struggles reaching that threshold. Primary risk is small sample size and potential role changes, but the underlying efficiency metrics support continued under performance.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-01-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-23 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Sam Howell's Passing TDs prop record last 10 games?
Sam Howell went 3-7-0 over/under on passing touchdown props in his last 10 games, hitting the over just 30% of the time. He averaged 1.2 touchdowns per game against an average line of 1.3, creating a -0.1 differential that favored under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Sam Howell Passing TDs last 10 games?
Bet under on Sam Howell's passing touchdowns. The 70% under rate and +33.6% ROI on unders over 10 games shows clear value. His 1.2 average against 1.3 lines demonstrates consistent struggles meeting modest expectations.
What's Sam Howell's average Passing TDs last 10 games?
Sam Howell averaged 1.2 passing touchdowns over his last 10 games compared to an average line of 1.3. This -0.1 differential shows he consistently fell short of market expectations, making under bets profitable at +33.6% ROI.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Sam Howell touchdown unders when lines are set at 1.5 or higher, as his 1.2 average suggests difficulty reaching that threshold. Avoid betting after explosive performances when books might temporarily lower lines below his proven ceiling.