Russell Wilson has averaged 15.1 rushing yards over his last 10 games, beating his 11.8 average line by 3.3 yards per game. Despite this positive differential, his 5-5 over/under record and negative ROI on both sides suggest efficient market pricing. Lean OVER based on the consistent production edge.
Expert Analysis
Wilson's rushing yards trend reveals a fascinating disconnect between production and betting outcomes. The veteran quarterback has consistently exceeded his rushing lines by nearly three full yards per game, yet the 50% over rate indicates the market has been pricing him efficiently. This suggests books have been adjusting his lines throughout the sample, likely starting lower and gradually increasing them as Wilson's mobility became more apparent in Pittsburgh's offense. The 3.3-yard average differential is substantial for rushing yards props, where margins are typically thin. Wilson's dual longest streaks of 5 overs and 4 unders demonstrate the volatility inherent in quarterback rushing props, where game script heavily influences outcomes. His current 1-game under streak follows what was likely his longest over run, suggesting potential regression. The negative ROI on both sides points to sharp line-setting, but the persistent production advantage indicates Wilson may still be undervalued. At 36, Wilson has maintained surprising mobility, and Pittsburgh's offensive scheme appears to incorporate designed runs and scramble opportunities that inflate his rushing totals beyond what books initially expected.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Wilson's 3.3-yard average differential over his betting line represents genuine value that the market hasn't fully corrected. The 50% over rate masks his consistent production edge, suggesting lines remain slightly soft. Target games where Pittsburgh faces pressure or trailing game scripts that could force Wilson into scramble situations. Main risk is continued line adjustments that eliminate the edge.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-11 | OPP | 14.5 | 6.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-04 | OPP | 15.5 | 16.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-25 | OPP | 12.5 | 55.0 | +42.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-21 | OPP | 9.5 | 27.0 | +17.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 8.5 | 13.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 8.5 | 17.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 10.5 | 3.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-21 | OPP | 11.5 | 10.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 13.5 | 1.0 | -12.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 13.5 | 3.0 | -10.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Rushing Yards Prop Lines
Compare Russell Wilson props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Russell Wilson's Rushing Yards prop record last 10 games?
Russell Wilson has gone 5-5 on rushing yards overs in his last 10 games, hitting exactly 50%. While the record appears neutral, he's averaged 15.1 yards against an 11.8 average line, creating a significant 3.3-yard positive differential per game.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Russell Wilson Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Lean OVER on Wilson's rushing yards props. Despite the 5-5 record, his consistent 3.3-yard average beat against the line indicates value. The market hasn't fully adjusted to his maintained mobility in Pittsburgh's offensive system.
What's Russell Wilson's average Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Wilson has averaged 15.1 rushing yards over his last 10 games compared to his average betting line of 11.8 yards. This 3.3-yard positive differential represents substantial value in the typically tight rushing yards prop market.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Wilson rushing yards overs in competitive games where Pittsburgh may trail or face defensive pressure. His scrambling ability becomes more valuable in these scenarios, while blowout wins could limit his rushing attempts and opportunities.