Russell Wilson's rushing yards props have been a goldmine for over bettors in home games, hitting at a 61.5% clip (8-5) with a +7.3 yard differential above the typical line. The Pittsburgh quarterback consistently exceeds expectations at Heinz Field, delivering +17.5% ROI for over backers.
Expert Analysis
Wilson's home rushing success stems from Pittsburgh's offensive philosophy and his comfort level at Heinz Field. The 7.3-yard differential above market expectations suggests oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his mobility within the Steelers' system. At home, Wilson benefits from familiar pocket timing and designed rollouts that maximize his scrambling opportunities. The 61.5% over rate isn't just variance—it reflects systematic undervaluation of his rushing floor. Pittsburgh's offensive line creates predictable pressure points that Wilson navigates by extending plays with his legs. The three-game over streak indicates recent form aligns with the broader trend. However, the -26.6% under ROI shows when Wilson fails to reach his rushing line, he typically falls well short, suggesting game script dependency. Cold weather late in the season could impact his willingness to run, and the sample size, while solid, leaves room for regression. The key risk is whether defensive coordinators have adjusted their spy coverage specifically for Wilson's home tendencies.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Wilson's 7.3-yard home differential and 61.5% hit rate create a sustainable edge, particularly when Pittsburgh faces pressure-heavy defenses that force scrambles. Target overs when facing teams with aggressive pass rushes or in competitive games where Wilson needs to extend plays. The main risk is weather-dependent games late in the season where Pittsburgh might limit designed runs.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 13 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-04 | OPP | 15.5 | 16.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-25 | OPP | 12.5 | 55.0 | +42.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 8.5 | 17.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 13.5 | 1.0 | -12.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-28 | OPP | 15.5 | 7.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-24 | OPP | 22.5 | 20.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-26 | OPP | 19.5 | 34.0 | +14.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 23.5 | 1.0 | -22.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-29 | OPP | 16.5 | 30.0 | +13.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-22 | OPP | 18.5 | 21.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-08 | OPP | 14.5 | 49.0 | +34.5 | OVER |
| 2023-09-17 | OPP | 13.5 | 56.0 | +42.5 | OVER |
| 2023-09-10 | OPP | 18.5 | 1.0 | -17.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Russell Wilson's Rushing Yards prop record home games?
Wilson's rushing yards props have gone over in 8 of 13 home games (61.5%), averaging 23.69 yards against a typical line around 16.35 yards. This creates a significant +7.3 yard differential favoring over bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Russell Wilson Rushing Yards home games?
Lean over on Wilson's rushing yards in home games. The 61.5% hit rate and +17.5% ROI for overs, combined with his 7.3-yard average differential above the line, creates a sustainable betting edge at Heinz Field.
What's Russell Wilson's average Rushing Yards home games?
Wilson averages 23.69 rushing yards in home games, which runs 7.3 yards above the typical market line of 16.35 yards. This substantial differential suggests consistent undervaluation by oddsmakers for his home rushing production.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Wilson rushing overs in competitive home games against pressure-heavy defenses. Avoid late-season cold weather games where Pittsburgh might limit designed runs. Prime spots include divisional games where Wilson must extend plays.