Russell Wilson's passing touchdown props in divisional games present a compelling over opportunity, hitting at a 72.7% clip (8-3 record) with a +38.8% ROI. Wilson averages 1.73 passing touchdowns against divisional opponents versus a typical 1.41 line, creating consistent value for over bettors.
Expert Analysis
Wilson's divisional touchdown production stems from the familiarity factor working in his favor rather than against him. While conventional wisdom suggests divisional games feature tighter defenses that know each other well, Wilson's 1.73 average against the 1.41 typical line reveals he rises to these occasions. The 0.32 touchdown differential per game compounds significantly over an 11-game sample, indicating this isn't random variance but a legitimate edge. Pittsburgh's divisional schedule includes matchups against Baltimore, Cincinnati, and Cleveland – defenses that have shown vulnerability to veteran quarterbacks who can diagnose their tendencies. Wilson's experience becomes an asset in these rivalry games where emotional intensity often leads to more aggressive play-calling in the red zone. The 72.7% over rate suggests books haven't fully adjusted their lines to account for Wilson's divisional performance, particularly his ability to find the end zone in crucial moments. The longest over streak of four games demonstrates consistency rather than boom-bust volatility. However, the small sample size of 11 games requires caution, as one poor divisional performance could significantly impact these metrics. Wilson's age and the physical nature of divisional play present potential regression risks.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Wilson's 72.7% over rate and +0.32 touchdown differential per divisional game create legitimate value, especially when lines sit at 1.5 or lower. The edge appears strongest in home divisional games where Pittsburgh's crowd energy and Wilson's comfort level peak. Primary risk involves sample size limitations and potential line adjustments as books recognize this trend.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 11 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Passing TDs Prop Lines
Compare Russell Wilson props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Russell Wilson's Passing TDs prop record divisional games?
Russell Wilson has gone over his passing touchdowns prop in 8 of 11 divisional games (72.7%) since 2023, generating a +38.8% return on investment. His under bets show a -47.9% ROI, making overs the clear profitable side.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Russell Wilson Passing TDs divisional games?
Bet the over on Wilson's passing touchdowns in divisional games. The 72.7% success rate and +0.32 touchdown differential per game versus typical lines create consistent value, especially when props are set at 1.5 or lower.
What's Russell Wilson's average Passing TDs divisional games?
Wilson averages 1.73 passing touchdowns per divisional game compared to the typical 1.41 line, creating a +0.32 differential. This 23% edge above market expectations has proven sustainable across 11 games since September 2023.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Wilson's passing touchdown overs in home divisional games where crowd energy and familiarity with AFC North defenses converge. Avoid betting when lines move above 2.0 touchdowns, as the edge diminishes significantly at inflated numbers.