Russell Wilson's passing touchdown props present a clear statistical edge, hitting the over at a robust 59.3% rate across 27 games with a +13.1% ROI. Wilson averages 1.63 touchdowns against a typical 1.39 line, creating a consistent +0.24 differential. The data strongly supports an over lean.
Expert Analysis
Wilson's passing touchdown consistency stems from Pittsburgh's red zone efficiency and his veteran pocket presence. The 59.3% over rate isn't inflated by a few explosive games—Wilson demonstrates remarkable touchdown distribution, rarely going scoreless while frequently finding multiple scores. His 1.63 average against 1.39 lines suggests oddsmakers consistently undervalue his red zone acumen. The Steelers' offensive philosophy emphasizes Wilson's arm talent in scoring situations, particularly with reliable targets like George Pickens and Pat Freiermuth. Wilson's mobility adds another touchdown dimension, as he can extend plays for receivers or scramble near the goal line. The +13.1% ROI over 27 games indicates sustainable profitability rather than variance-driven results. Most concerning is the limited sample size in Pittsburgh's system, though Wilson's career touchdown rate suggests this trend has foundational support. The longest over streak of five games shows Wilson can maintain hot stretches, while the longest under streak of just three games indicates he rarely goes cold for extended periods. His veteran experience in reading defenses becomes crucial in touchdown-dependent situations.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Wilson's 59.3% over rate and +0.24 average differential create a measurable edge, particularly when lines sit at 1.5 touchdowns. The veteran quarterback's red zone decision-making and Pittsburgh's commitment to passing near the goal line support continued over performance. Primary risk involves small sample size bias and potential regression to career norms.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-28 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Russell Wilson's Passing TDs prop record all games?
Wilson's passing touchdown props hit over 16 times versus 11 unders across 27 games, producing a 59.3% over rate. This translates to a profitable +13.1% ROI for over bettors while under bettors face -22.2% losses.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Russell Wilson Passing TDs all games?
Bet the over on Wilson's passing touchdowns. His 59.3% over rate and 1.63 average against 1.39 typical lines create measurable value. Focus on games where the line sits at 1.5 touchdowns for optimal edge.
What's Russell Wilson's average Passing TDs all games?
Wilson averages 1.63 passing touchdowns per game compared to his typical 1.39 prop line, creating a +0.24 differential. This consistent gap above market expectations drives the profitable over trend across his 27-game sample.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Wilson touchdown overs when lines are set at 1.5, maximizing the value from his 1.63 average. His red zone consistency and Pittsburgh's passing philosophy create the strongest edge in standard game situations.