Roschon Johnson's rushing yards props have been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 40% overs across 10 games with a brutal -1.7 yard average differential versus the line. The Bears backup running back consistently falls short of inflated expectations, delivering +14.6% ROI on unders. Lean Under with medium confidence.
Expert Analysis
Johnson's underwhelming rushing production stems from Chicago's limited offensive opportunities and his role as a complementary back behind D'Andre Swift. The 18.9 yard average against a 20.6 line reveals consistent market overvaluation, likely driven by his occasional touchdown upside rather than rushing volume reality. His 4-6 over/under record masks an even starker trend — Johnson has managed just one stretch of three consecutive overs while enduring a four-game under streak, highlighting the feast-or-famine nature of his opportunities. The Bears' struggling offense limits Johnson's ceiling, as negative game scripts often abandon the ground game entirely. Most concerning for over bettors is Johnson's role volatility; when Chicago falls behind early, his rushing attempts evaporate in favor of passing situations. The -23.6% ROI on overs isn't just bad luck — it reflects a fundamental disconnect between market pricing and Johnson's actual usage patterns. While regression toward the mean suggests some improvement, the underlying factors driving this trend remain intact: limited offensive efficiency, committee backfield usage, and game script dependency that consistently caps his rushing output below market expectations.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Johnson's consistent underperformance versus the line (-1.7 yards per game) and strong under ROI (+14.6%) create a sustainable edge. Target unders when Chicago faces strong defenses or projects as road underdogs, where negative game scripts limit rushing attempts. The main risk is touchdown variance inflating his rushing totals, but the volume-based trend favors continued under success.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 11.5 | 3.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 11.5 | 33.0 | +21.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 19.5 | -4.0 | -23.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 24.5 | 8.0 | -16.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 28.5 | 25.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 30.5 | 26.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 18.5 | 21.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 9.5 | 36.0 | +26.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-27 | OPP | 22.5 | 35.0 | +12.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-05 | OPP | 29.5 | 6.0 | -23.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Roschon Johnson's Rushing Yards prop record last 10 games?
Roschon Johnson has gone 4-6 on rushing yards overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 40% of over bets. He's averaged 18.9 rushing yards against a 20.6 average line, falling short by 1.7 yards per game consistently.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Roschon Johnson Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Bet under on Johnson's rushing yards props. The data strongly favors unders with +14.6% ROI versus -23.6% on overs. His limited role and Chicago's offensive struggles create sustainable value betting against inflated market lines.
What's Roschon Johnson's average Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Johnson has averaged 18.9 rushing yards over his last 10 games compared to an average line of 20.6 yards. This -1.7 yard differential per game demonstrates consistent market overvaluation of his rushing production capabilities.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Johnson rushing unders when Chicago is road underdogs or facing top-10 run defenses. Negative game scripts force passing situations that eliminate his limited rushing opportunities, making unders most profitable in unfavorable matchups.