Roschon Johnson's rushing yards props present a clear under opportunity with just 38.5% overs across 13 games. The Bears backup averages 20.1 yards against 22.8 lines, creating a -2.7 yard edge. This systematic underperformance yields +17.5% ROI on unders.
Expert Analysis
Johnson's rushing yards consistently fall short of inflated expectations, a pattern rooted in Chicago's offensive limitations and his role constraints. The 2.7-yard average deficit isn't marginal variance—it reflects fundamental misunderstanding of his usage in a Bears offense that ranks among the NFL's least productive rushing attacks. Johnson typically enters games as a change-of-pace back or in garbage time situations where volume remains limited. His 20.1-yard average suggests oddsmakers overvalue his ceiling based on sporadic explosive plays rather than his consistent floor. The Bears' offensive line struggles and predictable game scripts further cap his upside. Chicago frequently trails, forcing passing situations that minimize Johnson's opportunities. His longest under streak of four games demonstrates how quickly this trend can compound, while even his three-game over streak represents the exception rather than sustainable pattern. The -26.6% ROI on overs warns against chasing his occasional breakout performances. Johnson's role as a complementary piece rather than featured back creates natural volume ceilings that lines consistently ignore. This disconnect between perception and reality makes his rushing yards unders particularly reliable in a league where backup running back props often carry inflated expectations.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Johnson's systematic underperformance against inflated lines creates consistent value, supported by Chicago's offensive limitations and his complementary role. Target unders when lines exceed 20 yards, especially in games where the Bears face strong run defenses or likely negative game scripts. Main risk involves garbage time carries if Chicago trails significantly.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 13 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 11.5 | 3.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 11.5 | 33.0 | +21.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 19.5 | -4.0 | -23.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 24.5 | 8.0 | -16.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 28.5 | 25.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 30.5 | 26.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 18.5 | 21.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 9.5 | 36.0 | +26.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-27 | OPP | 22.5 | 35.0 | +12.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-05 | OPP | 29.5 | 6.0 | -23.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-29 | OPP | 30.5 | 21.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-01 | OPP | 34.5 | 13.0 | -21.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-24 | OPP | 25.5 | 38.0 | +12.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Roschon Johnson's Rushing Yards prop record all games?
Johnson's rushing yards record shows 5 overs and 8 unders across 13 games (38.5% over rate). He averages 20.1 yards against 22.8 average lines, missing by 2.7 yards per game consistently.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Roschon Johnson Rushing Yards all games?
Bet under on Johnson's rushing yards props. The data strongly supports unders with +17.5% ROI compared to -26.6% on overs, backed by his consistent underperformance against inflated expectations.
What's Roschon Johnson's average Rushing Yards all games?
Johnson averages 20.1 rushing yards per game against average lines of 22.8 yards. This -2.7 yard differential represents systematic underperformance rather than random variance across his 13-game sample.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Johnson rushing yards unders when lines exceed 20 yards, especially against strong run defenses or in games where Chicago likely trails early and abandons the ground game.