Roschon Johnson's receiving yards prop shows clear under value with just 38.5% overs across 13 games. The Bears backup running back averages 9.46 yards against a typical 9.12 line, but the under delivers +17.5% ROI versus -26.6% on overs. Lean Under.
Expert Analysis
The numbers reveal a compelling under trend for Roschon Johnson's receiving yards that stems from his limited role in Chicago's passing game. As primarily a backup running back and special teams contributor, Johnson's receiving opportunities remain sporadic and game-script dependent. His 9.46-yard average barely exceeds typical lines, but the volatility works against over bettors. The 38.5% over rate indicates books may be setting lines based on his occasional spike games rather than his consistent baseline production. Johnson's receiving usage correlates heavily with Chicago's trailing game scripts and garbage time situations, making his props inherently unpredictable. The Bears' offensive philosophy under their current coaching staff emphasizes established receivers and tight ends in the passing game, relegating Johnson to emergency checkdown duties. His longest under streak of four games demonstrates how quickly he can disappear from the passing attack when the Bears control games or lean heavily on their primary offensive weapons. The -26.6% ROI on overs suggests recreational bettors consistently overvalue his receiving upside based on limited sample sizes.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 17.5% under ROI combined with Johnson's peripheral role in Chicago's passing attack creates sustainable value. Target this prop when the Bears face competent opponents where game scripts won't force desperate passing situations. Main risk is garbage time volume in blowout losses inflating his numbers unexpectedly.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 13 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 6.5 | 8.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 9.5 | 0.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 10.5 | 0.0 | -10.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 10.5 | 38.0 | +27.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-10 | OPP | 10.5 | 0.0 | -10.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-27 | OPP | 7.5 | 40.0 | +32.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 9.5 | 0.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-05 | OPP | 12.5 | 9.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-29 | OPP | 11.5 | 10.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-01 | OPP | 11.5 | 2.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-24 | OPP | 10.5 | 11.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Roschon Johnson's Receiving Yards prop record all games?
Roschon Johnson has gone over his receiving yards prop in just 5 of 13 games (38.5%) this season. His under record of 8-5-0 shows consistent value on the under side with a +17.5% ROI for under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Roschon Johnson Receiving Yards all games?
Bet under on Roschon Johnson's receiving yards props. The 38.5% over rate and +17.5% under ROI indicate clear value on the under side, especially given his limited role in Chicago's passing game as a backup running back.
What's Roschon Johnson's average Receiving Yards all games?
Roschon Johnson averages 9.46 receiving yards per game against typical lines around 9.12 yards. While he barely exceeds the average line, the volatility and his limited receiving role make unders more profitable long-term.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Johnson's receiving yards unders when Chicago faces quality opponents in competitive games. Avoid when the Bears are heavy underdogs facing potential blowouts, as garbage time passing could inflate his receiving opportunities and yardage totals unexpectedly.