Rondale Moore's reception props have been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 40% over the last 10 games with a -0.2 reception differential. The under has generated a healthy 14.6% ROI while overs have been brutal at -23.6%. This trend strongly favors the under.
Expert Analysis
Moore's reception struggles stem from Atlanta's evolving offensive identity and his role within it. The 2.3 reception average against a 2.5 line reveals consistent underperformance that goes beyond random variance. This isn't a volume receiver fighting for targets in a crowded room—Moore's skill set as a gadget player creates inherent volatility in his usage patterns. Game script dependency looms large, as Atlanta's ground-heavy approach when leading limits passing volume. The -0.2 differential might seem small, but it's persistent across a meaningful sample size. Moore's role fluctuates based on matchup and game flow, making him unreliable for consistent reception totals. The 14.6% ROI on unders suggests the market hasn't fully adjusted to his reduced involvement in Atlanta's offense. While two consecutive overs show recent uptick, the longer trend of three straight unders before that demonstrates the underlying pattern. Moore's ceiling remains capped by target share competition and an offense that doesn't prioritize short-area passing where he thrives.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 14.6% ROI on unders combined with the persistent -0.2 differential creates a profitable angle against inflated reception lines. Target Moore unders when Atlanta faces strong rushing defenses that force more passing attempts, as increased volume doesn't guarantee his individual success. Main risk is a potential role expansion or injury to other receivers that could boost his target share unexpectedly.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-01-07 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-03 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-05 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-08 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Rondale Moore's Receptions prop record last 10 games?
Moore has gone over his receptions prop in just 4 of his last 10 games (40% rate), going under 6 times. His 4-6-0 over/under record with a -0.2 average differential shows consistent underperformance against betting lines.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Rondale Moore Receptions last 10 games?
Bet the under on Moore's receptions. The 14.6% ROI on unders versus -23.6% on overs, combined with his 2.3 average against 2.5 lines, creates a clear mathematical edge for under bettors.
What's Rondale Moore's average Receptions last 10 games?
Moore averages 2.3 receptions over his last 10 games compared to typical 2.5 betting lines, creating a -0.2 differential. This consistent underperformance suggests the market overvalues his reception floor in Atlanta's offense.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Moore reception unders when Atlanta faces strong rushing defenses that force passing situations, as increased team pass attempts don't guarantee individual success. Avoid when key receivers are injured and his role might expand.