Rondale Moore's receiving yards props have hit the over in 60% of his last 10 games with a strong +14.6% ROI for over bettors. Despite averaging just 22.7 yards against a 23.1 line, the over trend shows persistence with three consecutive hits. Lean over on favorable matchups.
Expert Analysis
Moore's receiving yards trend reveals a classic case where raw averages mask profitable betting opportunities. While his 22.7-yard average sits 0.4 yards below the typical 23.1 line, the 60% over rate with +14.6% ROI tells a different story about his upside variance. The three-game over streak suggests Moore's role has evolved or he's finding better chemistry within Atlanta's offensive scheme. His boom-or-bust profile as a slot receiver creates natural volatility that favors over betting when conditions align. The concerning element is the modest differential between his average and the line, indicating books are pricing him accurately on paper. However, the consistent over performance suggests either increased target share, better red zone usage, or more favorable defensive matchups than his season-long numbers reflect. Moore's receiving yards props appear most valuable when targeting specific game scripts where Atlanta projects to throw frequently or face defenses vulnerable to slot receivers. The key risk is regression to his statistical mean, particularly if his recent uptick in production was matchup-driven rather than role-based. Smart over betting requires identifying games where Moore's ceiling is most accessible.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Moore's 60% over rate and strong ROI indicate genuine edge despite the tight line differential. The three-game over streak suggests improved offensive integration rather than random variance. Target overs in projected high-scoring games or against defenses weak to slot receivers. Main risk is mean reversion if recent production spike was matchup-specific rather than sustainable role expansion.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-01-07 | OPP | 23.5 | 31.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 21.5 | 26.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-24 | OPP | 21.5 | 30.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-03 | OPP | 20.5 | 6.0 | -14.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 34.5 | 48.0 | +13.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 22.5 | 43.0 | +20.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-05 | OPP | 18.5 | 5.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-29 | OPP | 23.5 | 10.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-22 | OPP | 22.5 | 2.0 | -20.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-08 | OPP | 22.5 | 26.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Rondale Moore's Receiving Yards prop record last 10 games?
Moore went over his receiving yards prop in 6 of his last 10 games (60% rate) while going under 4 times. His over bets generated a +14.6% ROI compared to -23.6% for unders, showing clear profitability on the over side.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Rondale Moore Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Lean over on Moore's receiving yards props, especially in favorable matchups. The 60% over rate and +14.6% ROI provide a genuine edge despite his modest average. Target games with high projected passing volume or weak slot coverage.
What's Rondale Moore's average Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Moore averaged 22.7 receiving yards over his last 10 games compared to a typical line of 23.1 yards. While he averaged slightly under the line, his 60% over rate shows he frequently exceeded expectations when he did hit.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Moore receiving yards overs in projected high-scoring games or against defenses vulnerable to slot receivers. His current three-game over streak suggests improved offensive integration, making favorable matchups the optimal betting spots.