Rondale Moore's receiving yards props have been consistently undervalued, hitting under in 8 of 14 games (57.1%) with a -4.4 yard average differential. The under generates a solid 9.1% ROI while overs lose -18.2%, creating a clear edge despite his current 3-game over streak.
Expert Analysis
Moore's receiving yards props consistently overestimate his production, with books setting lines averaging 24.57 yards while he delivers just 20.14 yards per game. This 4.4-yard gap isn't marginal variance—it represents systematic overvaluation of a slot receiver whose role fluctuates significantly within Atlanta's offense. Moore's 42.9% over rate reveals books haven't properly adjusted to his inconsistent target share and the Falcons' run-heavy approach under Arthur Smith. The current 3-game over streak appears to be positive regression after a 4-game under streak, but the underlying usage patterns haven't fundamentally changed. Moore remains a complementary piece rather than a featured receiver, making his props vulnerable to game script and defensive attention on primary targets. His production spikes come in specific matchups against slot-friendly defenses or when injuries create opportunity, but these situations are less frequent than books price in. The 9.1% ROI on unders demonstrates consistent market inefficiency, though bettors should monitor target trends and defensive matchups that could temporarily shift his role.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 4.4-yard average differential and 9.1% under ROI create legitimate value despite the recent over streak. Moore's inconsistent target share and Atlanta's offensive philosophy support continued underperformance versus inflated lines. Best spots are against defenses that limit slot production or when game script favors the ground game. Main risk is injury-driven target increases or a significant offensive philosophy change.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 14 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-01-07 | OPP | 23.5 | 31.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 21.5 | 26.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-24 | OPP | 21.5 | 30.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-03 | OPP | 20.5 | 6.0 | -14.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 34.5 | 48.0 | +13.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 22.5 | 43.0 | +20.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-05 | OPP | 18.5 | 5.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-29 | OPP | 23.5 | 10.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-22 | OPP | 22.5 | 2.0 | -20.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-08 | OPP | 22.5 | 26.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-01 | OPP | 25.5 | 0.0 | -25.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-24 | OPP | 25.5 | 8.0 | -17.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-17 | OPP | 27.5 | 14.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-10 | OPP | 34.5 | 33.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Receiving Yards Prop Lines
Compare Rondale Moore props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Rondale Moore's Receiving Yards prop record all games?
Rondale Moore hits under on receiving yards props in 8 of 14 games (57.1% under rate). His 6-8-0 over/under record shows consistent value on the under side with a 42.9% over rate across all situations.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Rondale Moore Receiving Yards all games?
Bet under on Moore's receiving yards props. He averages 4.4 yards below his lines with under bets generating 9.1% ROI. The market consistently overvalues his production despite his complementary role in Atlanta's offense.
What's Rondale Moore's average Receiving Yards all games?
Moore averages 20.14 receiving yards per game compared to average prop lines of 24.57 yards. This 4.4-yard negative differential represents systematic overvaluation and creates consistent under value across his props.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Moore receiving yards unders when Atlanta faces defenses that limit slot production or when game script favors rushing. Avoid when key Falcons receivers are injured, as Moore's target share increases significantly in those situations.