Rhamondre Stevenson's home rushing yards props present a clear under opportunity, hitting just 41.7% overs across 12 games with a brutal -20.4% ROI on overs. His 51.92-yard home average barely trails the typical 52.17 line, creating sustainable value on unders.
Expert Analysis
Stevenson's home rushing struggles stem from New England's offensive limitations at Gillette Stadium, where defensive coordinators have successfully contained the Patriots' predictable ground attack. The 41.7% over rate reflects systematic issues rather than random variance, particularly evident in the current four-game under streak that followed a brief two-game over run. The Patriots' home offensive line struggles create consistent negative game scripts, forcing Stevenson into obvious rushing situations where defenses can key on stopping the run. His 51.92-yard home average sits just 0.25 yards below typical lines, but this small margin compounds over time when combined with the clear directional bias. The -20.4% ROI on overs versus +11.4% on unders demonstrates market inefficiency, as oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted for New England's home field disadvantage in rushing situations. Stevenson's talent remains evident, but the structural factors limiting his home production—poor pass protection leading to obvious run calls, limited offensive creativity, and defenses stacking the box—show no signs of improvement. The consistency of this trend across 12 games suggests sustainable value rather than a temporary cold streak.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 41.7% over rate and significant ROI gap create legitimate value on Stevenson rushing yards unders at home, particularly when lines sit near his 51.92 average. Target spots where New England faces strong run defenses or enters as underdogs, amplifying negative game script concerns. Primary risk involves potential offensive line improvements or increased passing efficiency opening rushing lanes.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 12 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-28 | OPP | 43.5 | 1.0 | -42.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 51.5 | 73.0 | +21.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 58.5 | 73.0 | +14.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 48.5 | 48.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 60.5 | 81.0 | +20.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-03 | OPP | 62.5 | 39.0 | -23.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 46.5 | 88.0 | +41.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-05 | OPP | 49.5 | 87.0 | +37.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-22 | OPP | 45.5 | 34.0 | -11.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-08 | OPP | 53.5 | 24.0 | -29.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-17 | OPP | 51.5 | 50.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-10 | OPP | 54.5 | 25.0 | -29.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Rhamondre Stevenson's Rushing Yards prop record home games?
Stevenson has gone over his rushing yards prop in just 5 of 12 home games (41.7%), producing a dismal -20.4% ROI on overs while unders have generated +11.4% returns for consistent value.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Rhamondre Stevenson Rushing Yards home games?
Bet under on Stevenson's home rushing yards props. The 41.7% over rate and significant ROI gap favor unders, especially when lines approach his 51.92-yard home average or higher.
What's Rhamondre Stevenson's average Rushing Yards home games?
Stevenson averages 51.92 rushing yards in home games, trailing the typical line of 52.17 by 0.25 yards. This small but consistent gap creates exploitable value on under bets.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Stevenson rushing unders when New England plays strong run defenses at home or enters as underdogs, amplifying negative game script situations that limit his ground production opportunities.