Rhamondre Stevenson's rushing yards props have been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 42.3% of overs across 26 games with a brutal -19.2% ROI on the over side. The Patriots back consistently falls short of inflated lines, averaging 51.19 yards against 52.69-yard props. This is a clear lean under situation.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a compelling story about Rhamondre Stevenson's rushing yard props being systematically overvalued by oddsmakers. His 11-15 over/under record represents a significant deviation from the expected 50% split, suggesting books haven't properly adjusted to his actual output patterns. The -1.5 yard differential between his average performance and typical lines might seem minimal, but it's meaningful when considering the Patriots' inconsistent offensive line play and game script dependencies that often limit Stevenson's ceiling. New England's tendency to fall behind early forces them into pass-heavy situations, capping Stevenson's carry volume in crucial scoring opportunities. The 10.1% ROI on unders demonstrates this isn't random variance but a sustainable edge driven by the team's offensive limitations. Stevenson's talent is undeniable, but the Patriots' offensive struggles create a consistent gap between perception and reality. The longest under streak of five games highlights how extended rough patches can occur, while even his best three-game over streak suggests limited upside sustainability. Without significant offensive line improvements or more favorable game scripts, this trend appears likely to persist rather than regress toward the mean.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 10.1% ROI on unders combined with consistent line inflation creates a profitable angle on Stevenson rushing yards props. Target spots where New England faces strong run defenses or projects to trail early, as these amplify the underlying trend. The main risk is a dramatic offensive improvement or increased red zone usage that could shift his floor upward.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-28 | OPP | 43.5 | 1.0 | -42.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 47.5 | 60.0 | +12.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 48.5 | 69.0 | +20.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 51.5 | 73.0 | +21.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 55.5 | 13.0 | -42.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 58.5 | 73.0 | +14.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 56.5 | 74.0 | +17.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 55.5 | 16.0 | -39.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 48.5 | 48.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 47.5 | 18.0 | -29.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 55.5 | 43.0 | -12.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 65.5 | 23.0 | -42.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 60.5 | 81.0 | +20.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 50.5 | 120.0 | +69.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-03 | OPP | 62.5 | 39.0 | -23.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Rhamondre Stevenson's Rushing Yards prop record all games?
Rhamondre Stevenson's rushing yards props have gone over in just 11 of 26 games (42.3%) across the sample period. His under record of 15-11 represents a significant deviation from the expected 50-50 split, indicating consistent line inflation by oddsmakers.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Rhamondre Stevenson Rushing Yards all games?
Bet under on Rhamondre Stevenson's rushing yards props. The data shows a clear edge with unders producing 10.1% ROI while overs lose 19.2%. His 51.19-yard average consistently falls short of typical 52.69-yard lines, creating sustainable value.
What's Rhamondre Stevenson's average Rushing Yards all games?
Rhamondre Stevenson averages 51.19 rushing yards per game across all situations, which falls 1.5 yards short of his typical prop line of 52.69 yards. This consistent gap between performance and expectations drives the profitable under trend.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Rhamondre Stevenson rushing yards unders when New England faces strong run defenses or projects to trail early. These game scripts amplify the underlying trend by limiting his carry volume and creating more predictable under outcomes.