Ray Davis rushing yards props present a compelling under opportunity with an 80% hit rate over 10 games this season. Davis averages just 10.7 rushing yards against an 18.9 line, creating a massive -8.2 differential that has produced +52.7% ROI on unders.
Expert Analysis
Ray Davis's rushing yards props reveal a classic case of market overadjustment for a backup running back in Buffalo's high-powered offense. The 20% over rate tells only part of the story—the 8.2-yard average shortfall suggests oddsmakers consistently overestimate Davis's role in an offense dominated by Josh Allen's rushing ability and James Cook's primary back duties. Davis functions primarily as a change-of-pace option and short-yardage specialist, rarely seeing the volume needed to clear inflated rushing totals. The current six-game under streak isn't statistical noise but reflects Buffalo's offensive identity, where Davis averages fewer than 4 carries per game in most contests. His rushing production depends heavily on game script, blowout situations, and Cook's health status—variables that rarely align simultaneously. The Bills' pass-heavy approach and Allen's designed runs further limit Davis's rushing opportunities, making these props particularly vulnerable to the under. Market makers appear slow to adjust to Davis's actual usage patterns, creating persistent value on the under side.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 8.2-yard average shortfall and 80% under rate create clear value, though small sample size limits conviction. Target Davis rushing yard unders when Buffalo faces competent opponents requiring sustained passing attacks. Main risk is a blowout scenario where garbage time carries inflate his total, but even then, his season-long usage suggests consistent underperformance.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-26 | OPP | 9.5 | 4.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-12 | OPP | 19.5 | 3.0 | -16.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 25.5 | 9.0 | -16.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 25.5 | 12.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 14.5 | 11.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 21.5 | 6.0 | -15.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 18.5 | 20.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 24.5 | 29.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 11.5 | 0.0 | -11.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 18.5 | 13.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Ray Davis's Rushing Yards prop record all games?
Ray Davis has gone under his rushing yards prop in 8 of 10 games this season (80% under rate). His 2-8-0 over/under record with -61.8% ROI on overs makes this one of the most reliable under trends.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Ray Davis Rushing Yards all games?
Bet under on Ray Davis rushing yards props. His 10.7 average versus 18.9 line creates an 8.2-yard shortfall with +52.7% under ROI. The six-game under streak reflects his limited role in Buffalo's offense.
What's Ray Davis's average Rushing Yards all games?
Ray Davis averages 10.7 rushing yards per game against an average line of 18.9 yards. This -8.2 differential represents a 43% shortfall, indicating consistent market overvaluation of his rushing production in Buffalo's system.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Davis rushing yard unders when Buffalo faces competitive opponents requiring sustained passing. Avoid in potential blowouts where garbage time might inflate carries, though his season-long pattern suggests value persists.