Rashid Shaheed has hit the over on his receptions prop in 6 of his last 10 games (60%), averaging 3.2 catches against a typical 3.0 line for a +0.2 differential. The Saints receiver shows consistent volume with a profitable 14.6% ROI on overs, making him a lean over candidate when the price is right.
Expert Analysis
Shaheed's 60% over rate reflects his evolving role in New Orleans' passing attack, where his speed and route-running versatility have carved out consistent targets beyond his deep-threat reputation. The +0.2 average differential suggests oddsmakers are still catching up to his expanded usage, particularly in games where the Saints need to move the ball through the air. His 14.6% ROI on overs indicates genuine value rather than random variance, while the -23.6% under ROI confirms the market inefficiency. The current two-game over streak aligns with his pattern of clustering positive performances, suggesting momentum in his target share. However, Shaheed's reception totals remain volatile due to New Orleans' run-heavy tendencies and his role as a complementary receiver behind established targets. Game script dependency poses the primary risk, as blowout losses or heavy rushing game plans can crater his involvement. The Saints' offensive coordinator changes and quarterback uncertainty add layers of unpredictability to his target distribution, making situational analysis crucial for identifying the strongest betting spots.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Shaheed's 60% over rate and positive differential indicate genuine market inefficiency rather than variance. The 14.6% ROI on overs provides mathematical support for the trend's sustainability. Target games where New Orleans projects to throw frequently or faces pass-funnel defenses. Primary risk remains game script dependency and the Saints' conservative offensive approach limiting overall passing volume.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-07 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 3.5 | 8.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-07 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-26 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-19 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Rashid Shaheed's Receptions prop record last 10 games?
Shaheed has gone over his receptions prop in 6 of his last 10 games for a 60% success rate. He's averaging 3.2 receptions against typical lines of 3.0, creating a positive +0.2 differential that suggests consistent market undervaluation.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Rashid Shaheed Receptions last 10 games?
Lean over on Shaheed's receptions props, particularly in games where New Orleans projects to throw frequently. His 60% over rate and 14.6% ROI indicate genuine value, though game script dependency requires careful spot selection for optimal results.
What's Rashid Shaheed's average Receptions last 10 games?
Shaheed is averaging 3.2 receptions over his last 10 games compared to typical prop lines around 3.0. This +0.2 differential suggests oddsmakers are still adjusting to his expanded role in the Saints' passing attack beyond just deep threats.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Shaheed reception overs when New Orleans faces pass-funnel defenses or projects to trail early, forcing more passing volume. Avoid games against strong run defenses where the Saints can control clock with their ground game and limit overall pass attempts.