Rashee Rice has delivered exceptional value on reception overs, hitting 15-7-0 (68.2%) across 22 games while averaging 5.73 receptions against a 4.5 line. This +1.2 differential has generated a remarkable +30.2% ROI on overs, making this one of the sharpest trends in the prop market.
Expert Analysis
Rice's reception dominance stems from his role as Patrick Mahomes' primary underneath safety valve in Andy Reid's offense. The 5.73 average against a 4.5 line represents genuine market inefficiency, not statistical noise. Rice's target share has remained consistently robust because Kansas City's offensive philosophy prioritizes short-to-intermediate passing concepts that maximize his skill set. The Chiefs' tendency to play from behind or in competitive games increases passing volume, directly benefiting Rice's reception totals. His route tree consists heavily of slants, hitches, and crossing patterns that generate high-percentage targets regardless of game script. The 68.2% over rate across 22 games provides substantial sample size confidence, while the longest under streak of just two games demonstrates remarkable consistency. Market makers appear slow to adjust this line upward, possibly undervaluing Rice's expanded role in the post-Tyreek Hill era. The +30.2% ROI on overs versus -39.3% on unders creates a clear directional edge. Rice's reception floor remains high because Mahomes trusts him in crucial down-and-distance situations, making him matchup-proof against most defensive schemes.
Betting Verdict
OVER with HIGH confidence. Rice's 68.2% over rate combined with a +1.2 average differential creates undeniable value on reception overs. The market consistently underprices his role as Mahomes' primary target underneath, especially in competitive games where Kansas City leans on short passing concepts. The main risk is potential blowout scenarios reducing overall passing attempts, but Rice's target consistency minimizes this concern.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 6.5 | 12.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 5.5 | 5.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-05 | OPP | 5.5 | 7.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-11 | OPP | 6.5 | 6.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-28 | OPP | 6.5 | 8.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-21 | OPP | 6.5 | 4.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-13 | OPP | 5.5 | 8.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 5.5 | 5.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-25 | OPP | 6.5 | 6.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 5.5 | 9.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-10 | OPP | 4.5 | 7.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-03 | OPP | 4.5 | 8.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-26 | OPP | 4.5 | 8.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-20 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-05 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Rashee Rice's Receptions prop record all games?
Rice holds a dominant 15-7-0 record on reception overs across 22 games (68.2% hit rate). This translates to hitting overs in more than two-thirds of his appearances, with only seven games falling under the line.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Rashee Rice Receptions all games?
Bet the OVER on Rice's receptions with high confidence. His 68.2% over rate and +1.2 average differential above the line create clear value, supported by his consistent role as Mahomes' primary underneath target.
What's Rashee Rice's average Receptions all games?
Rice averages 5.73 receptions per game against the typical 4.5 line, creating a significant +1.2 differential. This gap represents genuine value that the market hasn't fully corrected despite his consistent outperformance.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Rice reception overs in competitive games where Kansas City utilizes short passing concepts. His consistency makes him less matchup-dependent than other receivers, but avoid potential blowout scenarios that could limit overall passing volume.