Raheem Mostert has delivered exceptional home rushing value, hitting the over in 60% of games with a +10.3 yard average differential above his closing line. The 14.6% ROI on overs signals legitimate home field advantage translating to production. Lean over on Mostert rushing yards when Miami hosts.
Expert Analysis
Mostert's home rushing dominance stems from Miami's offensive identity shift at Hard Rock Stadium. The Dolphins leverage their fast-track surface and crowd energy to establish early leads, creating ideal game script conditions for sustained ground attacks. Mostert averages 59.5 rushing yards at home versus a 49.2 average line, suggesting oddsmakers consistently undervalue his home environment boost. The veteran back thrives in Miami's up-tempo system when the crowd provides momentum, as defensive coordinators struggle to communicate adjustments in hostile conditions. His 60% over rate isn't fluky—it reflects systematic advantages including familiar field conditions, reduced travel fatigue, and offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel's enhanced play-calling comfort at home. The +14.6% ROI on overs demonstrates this isn't just volume-based success but efficient yardage accumulation. However, regression risk exists if Miami's offensive line health deteriorates or if opposing defenses begin game-planning more aggressively against the run in home settings. The three-game over streak followed by three-game under streak pattern suggests some volatility, but the overall trend remains compelling. Mostert's age (32) means workload management could impact future home performances, though his current role as Miami's primary early-down back provides consistent opportunity.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Mostert's 60% home over rate and +10.3 yard differential above the line represents genuine value rooted in Miami's offensive system advantages at Hard Rock Stadium. Target overs when Miami is favored at home, as positive game script enhances rushing volume and efficiency. Primary risk involves potential workload reduction due to Mostert's age and Miami's committee approach in blowout scenarios.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 17.5 | 31.0 | +13.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 35.5 | 19.0 | -16.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 45.5 | 9.0 | -36.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-24 | OPP | 56.5 | 46.0 | -10.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-11 | OPP | 45.5 | 96.0 | +50.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 53.5 | 86.0 | +32.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-29 | OPP | 51.5 | 46.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-15 | OPP | 77.5 | 115.0 | +37.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-08 | OPP | 45.5 | 65.0 | +19.5 | OVER |
| 2023-09-24 | OPP | 63.5 | 82.0 | +18.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Rushing Yards Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Raheem Mostert's Rushing Yards prop record home games?
Mostert's rushing yards prop has gone over in 6 of 10 home games (60% rate) with a 6-4-0 record. He averages 59.5 rushing yards at home compared to a 49.2 average line, creating a significant +10.3 yard differential favoring overs.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Raheem Mostert Rushing Yards home games?
Bet over on Mostert's rushing yards in home games. The 60% over rate and +14.6% ROI demonstrate consistent value, particularly when Miami is favored and likely to control game script through their ground attack at Hard Rock Stadium.
What's Raheem Mostert's average Rushing Yards home games?
Mostert averages 59.5 rushing yards in home games, significantly above his 49.2 average closing line. This +10.3 yard differential suggests oddsmakers consistently undervalue his production boost when playing at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami's system.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Mostert rushing yards overs when Miami hosts divisional opponents or plays as home favorites. These conditions maximize game script advantages and crowd impact, while his familiarity with Hard Rock Stadium's surface enhances his cutting ability and acceleration.