Raheem Mostert has hit the over on his receptions prop in 6 of 10 games (60%), averaging 1.9 catches versus a typical 1.7 line. The +14.6% ROI on overs reflects Miami's increased reliance on Mostert as a safety valve, particularly as their offensive line struggles have forced more checkdown opportunities.
Expert Analysis
The 60% over rate on Mostert's reception props reflects a fundamental shift in how Miami utilizes their veteran back. The +0.2 differential between his 1.9 average and the standard 1.7 line suggests books haven't fully adjusted to his expanded passing game role. Miami's offensive line issues have created more situations where Tua Tagovailoa needs quick outlets, and Mostert has become that reliable checkdown option. The current three-game over streak aligns with Miami's recent game scripts, where they've trailed more frequently and needed to throw. However, the -23.6% ROI on unders shows that when Mostert fails to reach his reception total, he typically falls well short, suggesting game script dependency. The equal longest streaks of three games both ways indicate this isn't a one-sided trend but rather situation-dependent. Mostert's receiving usage correlates strongly with negative game scripts and pass-heavy approaches, making this prop highly sensitive to Miami's early performance and opponent strength. The veteran's reliable hands and route-running from the backfield position him well for continued target share, but his age and the potential for De'Von Achane to absorb more passing work present regression risks.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 60% hit rate and positive ROI indicate genuine value, particularly when Miami faces strong rushing defenses or quality opponents likely to force passing situations. Target games where Miami projects to trail or face elite run defenses that push them toward checkdown patterns. The main risk is Achane's health stealing targets and Miami establishing early leads that favor ground-heavy approaches.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-09-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 7.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2023-09-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Receptions Prop Lines
Compare Raheem Mostert props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Raheem Mostert's Receptions prop record last 10 games?
Mostert has gone over his receptions prop in 6 of his last 10 games (60% rate), averaging 1.9 catches per game versus the typical 1.7 line, generating a +14.6% ROI on over bets during this stretch.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Raheem Mostert Receptions last 10 games?
Lean over on Mostert's receptions props, especially when Miami faces strong defenses or quality opponents. The 60% over rate and positive ROI indicate genuine value, though game script dependency requires selective timing.
What's Raheem Mostert's average Receptions last 10 games?
Mostert averages 1.9 receptions over his last 10 games, running 0.2 catches above the standard 1.7 line. This differential suggests books haven't fully adjusted to his expanded role in Miami's passing attack.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Mostert reception overs when Miami faces strong rushing defenses or quality opponents likely to force trailing game scripts. Avoid when the Dolphins are heavy favorites or face weak defenses allowing early leads.