Patrick Mahomes has consistently fallen short of rushing yard expectations, hitting overs in just 40% of his last 10 games with a brutal -23.6% ROI. Despite averaging 20.8 yards against a 19.2 line, the under has delivered superior value at +14.6% ROI. Clear lean under.
Expert Analysis
Mahomes's rushing yard struggles reflect Kansas City's evolved offensive philosophy prioritizing pocket passing over designed mobility. The 4-6 over record masks a deeper issue: when Mahomes goes under, he crashes hard, creating the negative ROI despite a modest +1.6 average differential. His longest under streak of three games suggests sustained periods where the Chiefs minimize his ground involvement, likely during games where they're protecting leads or facing pressure packages that discourage scrambling. The current single-game under streak indicates we may be entering another conservative rushing phase. Most concerning for over bettors is how the positive average masks volatility—Mahomes either hits big rushing games that skew the mean upward or disappoints badly enough to create consistent under value. The Chiefs' championship-caliber passing attack reduces reliance on Mahomes's legs, particularly in crucial situations where turnovers matter most. This trend appears sustainable given Kansas City's offensive maturity and Mahomes's increasing pocket presence. The under's superior ROI suggests oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to this more conservative rushing approach, creating ongoing value for disciplined under bettors.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The +14.6% under ROI significantly outweighs the -23.6% over ROI, indicating sustainable value despite the modest positive rushing average. Target games where Kansas City faces quality pass rushes that encourage quick releases over scrambling, or when they're favored heavily and likely to control pace through the air. Main risk is a designed rushing game plan or garbage time scrambles inflating totals.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-09 | OPP | 28.5 | 25.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-26 | OPP | 23.5 | 43.0 | +19.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 24.5 | 14.0 | -10.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-25 | OPP | 16.5 | 12.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 15.5 | 14.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 15.5 | 17.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-29 | OPP | 16.5 | 4.0 | -12.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 12.5 | 60.0 | +47.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 22.5 | 0.0 | -22.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 16.5 | 19.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Rushing Yards Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Patrick Mahomes's Rushing Yards prop record last 10 games?
Mahomes has gone over his rushing yards prop in just 4 of his last 10 games (40% rate), posting a 4-6 over/under record. The under has been significantly more profitable with a +14.6% ROI compared to -23.6% for overs.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Bet under on Mahomes rushing yards props. The under has delivered +14.6% ROI over his last 10 games while overs have lost -23.6%. His 60% under rate indicates consistent value despite averaging slightly above the line.
What's Patrick Mahomes's average Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Mahomes averages 20.8 rushing yards over his last 10 games against an average line of 19.2 yards, creating a modest +1.6 differential. However, this positive average masks the superior under betting value and volatility in his rushing totals.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Mahomes rushing unders when Kansas City faces strong pass rushes that encourage quick pocket decisions, or when they're heavy favorites likely to control games through passing. Avoid when Chiefs trail early and may need scrambling plays.