Patrick Mahomes has hit the over in exactly half his games (5-5-0) over the last 10 contests, but his 239.9 yard average sits 7.6 yards below typical lines around 247.5. With negative ROI on both sides and no clear edge emerging, this trend suggests a disciplined pass on standard totals.
Expert Analysis
Mahomes's recent passing volume tells a story of strategic efficiency rather than aerial dominance. The 239.9 yard average represents a quarterback managing games rather than chasing volume, likely reflecting Kansas City's improved rushing attack and defensive performance that reduces comeback scenarios. The perfectly balanced 5-5 over/under record masks important context about game flow and situational usage. When Mahomes goes under, he's typically doing so decisively, suggesting the Chiefs control games early and lean on their ground game. The -7.6 yard differential from standard lines indicates the market may still be pricing in peak Mahomes volume from previous seasons. This creates a subtle but persistent under bias that sharp bettors should recognize. The lack of meaningful streaks (longest run just two games either direction) suggests Mahomes's passing volume is highly game-script dependent rather than following predictable patterns. His efficiency remains elite, but the raw volume has become more situational as Kansas City has evolved into a more balanced offensive attack. The negative ROI on both sides reflects accurate market pricing that leaves little room for profit on standard totals.
Betting Verdict
PASS with LOW confidence on standard totals. The perfectly balanced record and negative ROI on both sides indicate efficient market pricing that offers no clear edge. Mahomes's 7.6 yard deficit suggests slight under bias, but the small sample and game-script dependency make this unreliable. Focus on situational spots where game flow strongly favors one direction rather than betting the trend blindly.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-09 | OPP | 252.5 | 257.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-26 | OPP | 252.5 | 245.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 252.5 | 177.0 | -75.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-25 | OPP | 256.5 | 320.0 | +63.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-21 | OPP | 239.5 | 260.0 | +20.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 241.5 | 159.0 | -82.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 247.5 | 210.0 | -37.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-29 | OPP | 251.5 | 306.0 | +54.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 240.5 | 269.0 | +28.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 240.5 | 196.0 | -44.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Passing Yards Prop Lines
Compare Patrick Mahomes props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Patrick Mahomes's Passing Yards prop record last 10 games?
Mahomes has gone 5-5-0 on passing yards overs in his last 10 games, hitting exactly 50% with an average of 239.9 yards. Both over and under bets show negative 4.5% ROI, indicating balanced but unprofitable results.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards last 10 games?
Pass on standard Mahomes passing yards props. The 5-5 record and negative ROI on both sides offer no clear edge. His 239.9 average runs below typical lines, but the margin is too small for reliable profit.
What's Patrick Mahomes's average Passing Yards last 10 games?
Mahomes averages 239.9 passing yards over his last 10 games, which sits 7.6 yards below the typical market line of 247.5. This deficit suggests books may still be pricing peak volume from previous seasons.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Mahomes passing props in clear game-script scenarios: overs when Kansas City faces high-scoring opponents or trails early, unders when they're heavily favored against weak offenses. Avoid neutral game situations where volume becomes unpredictable.