Patrick Mahomes has gone over his passing touchdown line just 50% of the time across his last 10 games, with a 5-5-0 record that shows remarkable balance. His 1.9 touchdown average sits 0.4 above typical 1.5 lines, but the -4.5% ROI on both sides suggests efficient market pricing with minimal edge either direction.
Expert Analysis
The 50% over rate for Patrick Mahomes passing touchdowns reveals a quarterback operating in a more conservative offensive system than his peak years. Averaging 1.9 touchdowns per game represents solid production, but the 0.4 differential above standard lines indicates sportsbooks have adjusted to his current output level. The identical -4.5% ROI on both overs and unders signals remarkably efficient market pricing, suggesting oddsmakers have found the sweet spot for Mahomes props. His recent alternating pattern between overs and unders, with longest streaks of just two games in either direction, demonstrates consistency without predictable momentum. The Chiefs' evolved offensive philosophy, emphasizing ball control and defensive support, has shifted Mahomes from the 3+ touchdown explosions of his MVP seasons toward steadier 1-2 touchdown performances. This trend persistence seems likely given Kansas City's championship-focused approach prioritizing efficiency over individual statistics. Without significant injury concerns or dramatic schematic changes, Mahomes appears settled into this touchdown range, making props a coin flip proposition where line shopping becomes crucial for finding any meaningful edge.
Betting Verdict
PASS with LOW confidence. Patrick Mahomes passing touchdown props show perfectly balanced results with efficient market pricing reflected in the -4.5% ROI on both sides. The 1.9 average suggests modest value on overs when lines sit at 1.5, but the 50% hit rate indicates no systematic edge exists. Focus on game-specific factors like opponent pass defense rankings, weather conditions, and playoff implications rather than chasing this neutral trend.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Patrick Mahomes's Passing TDs prop record last 10 games?
Patrick Mahomes has gone 5-5-0 on passing touchdown overs in his last 10 games, hitting exactly 50% with a perfectly balanced record. He's averaging 1.9 touchdowns per game against typical lines of 1.5, showing consistent but not explosive production.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Patrick Mahomes Passing TDs last 10 games?
Pass on Patrick Mahomes passing touchdown props based on this trend. The 50% over rate and -4.5% ROI on both sides indicate efficient market pricing with no edge. Focus on game-specific matchup factors instead of this neutral historical pattern.
What's Patrick Mahomes's average Passing TDs last 10 games?
Patrick Mahomes is averaging 1.9 passing touchdowns over his last 10 games, which sits 0.4 above standard 1.5 lines. This differential suggests modest mathematical value on overs, but the 50% hit rate indicates the market has adjusted appropriately.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Patrick Mahomes passing touchdown props when facing bottom-10 pass defenses in dome environments or playoff games where Kansas City needs offensive firepower. Avoid in weather games or when the Chiefs have large leads where they emphasize ball control.