Patrick Mahomes passing touchdowns props show clear under value with a dismal 42.1% over rate across 38 games. His 1.66 average falls short of the typical 1.74 line, generating strong -19.6% ROI on overs versus profitable +10.5% on unders. This presents a compelling fade-the-public opportunity.
Expert Analysis
The Mahomes passing touchdown under trend reflects a fundamental market inefficiency driven by public perception versus reality. While casual bettors gravitate toward the superstar quarterback's big-play reputation, the data reveals a more nuanced picture. Mahomes averages 1.66 passing touchdowns per game against lines typically set at 1.74, creating an 0.08 touchdown gap that compounds over time. This differential isn't coincidental—it stems from Kansas City's evolved offensive identity under Andy Reid. The Chiefs increasingly rely on their elite rushing attack and short-yardage packages near the goal line, often vulturing potential Mahomes passing scores. Additionally, the team's defensive improvements have reduced garbage-time scenarios where Mahomes might pad touchdown numbers in blowouts. The consistency of this trend across 38 games suggests systematic factors rather than random variance. Mahomes remains elite between the 20s but faces structural headwinds in touchdown conversion that oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted for. The public's emotional attachment to backing the star quarterback creates persistent line inflation, making unders a mathematically sound long-term strategy. This trend shows no signs of regression given Kansas City's commitment to balanced offensive attack and improved game management.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 57.9% under rate combined with positive ROI creates sustainable value against inflated public lines. Target games where Kansas City projects as favorites by 7+ points, as comfortable leads often lead to conservative red zone play-calling. Main risk involves potential shootout scenarios or garbage time, but the overall trend strongly favors the under.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Patrick Mahomes's Passing TDs prop record all games?
Patrick Mahomes has gone under his passing touchdowns prop in 22 of 38 games (57.9%) with an overall record of 16-22-0. His props average 1.66 touchdowns against typical lines of 1.74, showing consistent under performance.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Patrick Mahomes Passing TDs all games?
Bet under on Patrick Mahomes passing touchdowns props. The 57.9% under rate and +10.5% ROI on unders versus -19.6% on overs creates clear mathematical value, especially when Kansas City is favored by significant margins.
What's Patrick Mahomes's average Passing TDs all games?
Patrick Mahomes averages 1.66 passing touchdowns per game across 38 contests. This falls 0.08 touchdowns below the typical 1.74 line, creating consistent under value that has generated profitable returns for under bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Mahomes passing touchdown unders when Kansas City is favored by 7+ points and in prime-time games where conservative game management is likely. Avoid potential shootout matchups against high-powered offenses where garbage time could inflate numbers.