Noah Gray has hit the under in 60% of his last 10 games with a -23.6% ROI on overs, making under bets the clear value play. His 18.5-yard average sits 0.3 yards below typical lines, creating a consistent edge for under backers seeking steady returns.
Expert Analysis
Noah Gray's receiving yards props present a compelling case study in market inefficiency. The tight end has averaged 18.5 yards over his last 10 games while facing lines averaging 18.8 yards, creating a modest but persistent 0.3-yard cushion for under bettors. This differential becomes significant when considering the -23.6% ROI destruction on overs versus the profitable +14.6% return on unders. Gray's role in Kansas City's offense explains this trend perfectly. As the Chiefs' secondary tight end behind Travis Kelce, Gray operates primarily as a blocking specialist who occasionally leaks out for short completions. His receiving opportunities remain highly game-script dependent, often disappearing entirely when Kansas City builds early leads or faces pass-heavy opponents who demand maximum protection. The 4-6-0 over/under record reflects this volatility, with Gray's biggest games typically coming in competitive contests where the Chiefs need every available target. However, these explosive performances are outliers rather than the norm. Gray's longest over streak reached just three games, while his under streaks have extended to four games, suggesting the market consistently overvalues his receiving potential. The current one-game under streak indicates recent market adjustment, but the underlying usage patterns that drive this trend remain unchanged in Andy Reid's offense.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The +14.6% ROI on unders combined with Gray's secondary role behind Kelce creates consistent value for under backers. Target unders when Kansas City is favored by more than a touchdown, as game scripts often minimize Gray's receiving opportunities in blowout scenarios. The main risk lies in competitive divisional games where every target becomes crucial.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-09 | OPP | 12.5 | 2.0 | -10.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 11.5 | 13.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-25 | OPP | 18.5 | 6.0 | -12.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-21 | OPP | 23.5 | 10.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 24.5 | 21.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 26.5 | 26.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 17.5 | 66.0 | +48.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 16.5 | 23.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 15.5 | 18.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-04 | OPP | 21.5 | 0.0 | -21.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Receiving Yards Prop Lines
Compare Noah Gray props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Noah Gray's Receiving Yards prop record last 10 games?
Noah Gray has gone 4-6-0 on receiving yards overs in his last 10 games, hitting the under 60% of the time. His average of 18.5 yards falls 0.3 yards short of typical 18.8-yard lines, creating consistent value for under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Noah Gray Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Bet the under on Noah Gray's receiving yards props. The +14.6% ROI on unders versus -23.6% loss rate on overs makes this a clear value play, especially when Kansas City is heavily favored and likely to limit passing volume.
What's Noah Gray's average Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Noah Gray averages 18.5 receiving yards over his last 10 games, sitting 0.3 yards below the typical 18.8-yard line. This small but persistent gap has created profitable opportunities for under backers throughout the sample period.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Noah Gray under props when Kansas City is favored by 7+ points, as blowout game scripts minimize his receiving role. Avoid unders in divisional games or when the Chiefs face high-powered offenses requiring maximum pass protection and targets.