Noah Gray shows a compelling 56.2% over rate (9-7 record) on receiving yards in away games, averaging 26.25 yards against lines averaging just 14.88 yards—an exceptional +11.4 differential. Despite a recent three-game under streak, the data strongly favors overs.
Expert Analysis
Gray's away game receiving production reveals a significant market inefficiency, with his 26.25-yard average crushing the typical 14.88-yard line by nearly 77%. This massive differential suggests oddsmakers consistently undervalue his road contributions to Kansas City's passing attack. The Chiefs' offensive system appears to utilize Gray more effectively away from home, possibly due to game script advantages when trailing or defensive adjustments that create favorable matchups for the tight end. While the current three-game under streak might concern some bettors, it represents natural variance in a 16-game sample rather than a fundamental shift. The +7.4% ROI on overs demonstrates sustainable profitability, while the -16.5% under ROI confirms the market's systematic undervaluation. Gray's role in Kansas City's high-powered offense provides consistent target opportunities, particularly in away environments where the Chiefs often face more aggressive defensive schemes that can leave tight ends in advantageous positions. The 56.2% over rate, while not overwhelming, becomes highly significant when combined with the substantial yardage differential and positive expected value.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The +11.4 average differential represents exceptional value despite the recent under streak. Gray's away production consistently exceeds market expectations in Kansas City's dynamic offense. Primary risk lies in potential line adjustments as books recognize this trend, making early week betting crucial for maximum value extraction.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-09 | OPP | 12.5 | 2.0 | -10.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-25 | OPP | 18.5 | 6.0 | -12.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 24.5 | 21.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 17.5 | 66.0 | +48.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 16.5 | 23.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 24.5 | 23.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 15.5 | 66.0 | +50.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 11.5 | 40.0 | +28.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 13.5 | 13.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-28 | OPP | 10.5 | 8.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-21 | OPP | 10.5 | 16.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 11.5 | 37.0 | +25.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-03 | OPP | 13.5 | 2.0 | -11.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-29 | OPP | 14.5 | 25.0 | +10.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-01 | OPP | 12.5 | 34.0 | +21.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Receiving Yards Prop Lines
Compare Noah Gray props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Noah Gray's Receiving Yards prop record away games?
Noah Gray's receiving yards prop shows a 9-7 over record (56.2%) in away games across 16 contests. He averages 26.25 receiving yards per road game, significantly outperforming the typical 14.88-yard betting line by 11.4 yards.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Noah Gray Receiving Yards away games?
Lean over on Gray's receiving yards in away games. The consistent +11.4 yard differential above market lines and +7.4% ROI on overs indicates sustainable value, despite the recent three-game under streak representing normal variance.
What's Noah Gray's average Receiving Yards away games?
Gray averages 26.25 receiving yards in away games, compared to typical betting lines of 14.88 yards. This represents a massive 76.5% premium over market expectations, suggesting consistent undervaluation by oddsmakers in road contests.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Gray's receiving yards overs early in the week before potential line adjustments. Away games against aggressive defenses provide optimal conditions, as Kansas City's offense often creates favorable tight end matchups in road environments.