Nelson Agholor's reception props present a compelling under opportunity with just 20% overs hitting across 10 games. His 1.1 average sits 0.2 receptions below typical lines, generating +52.7% ROI for under bettors. The current three-game under streak reinforces this edge.
Expert Analysis
Agholor's reception volume has consistently disappointed relative to market expectations, with books appearing slow to adjust their lines downward. The veteran receiver's 1.1 reception average represents a significant gap below the 1.3 lines he's typically seeing, suggesting oddsmakers are pricing in a role that simply isn't materializing on the field. This disconnect becomes even more pronounced when examining the consistency of his underperformance — hitting the over in just two of ten games indicates systematic issues rather than random variance. The three-game under streak currently active aligns with his season-long pattern of limited target share in Baltimore's offense. While regression toward the mean is always a consideration with small samples, Agholor's established role as a complementary receiver in an offense that spreads targets widely suggests this trend has structural staying power. The -61.8% ROI for over bettors tells the story of a market that hasn't properly recalibrated to his actual usage patterns. Books may be anchoring to preseason expectations or historical performance rather than adjusting to current reality. The lack of a meaningful over streak longer than one game reinforces that his ceiling remains capped in this offensive system.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 20% over rate combined with consistent underperformance relative to lines creates a sustainable edge. Agholor's role in Baltimore's offense appears more limited than books are pricing, making unders the clear play. Primary risk involves potential target increase due to injuries or game script, but his established usage patterns suggest continued value on the under side.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Nelson Agholor's Receptions prop record last 10 games?
Nelson Agholor has gone 2-8-0 over/under on his reception props in his last 10 games, hitting the over just 20% of the time. This represents one of the more lopsided trends among regular receivers this season.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Nelson Agholor Receptions last 10 games?
Bet the under on Nelson Agholor's reception props. The 20% over rate and +52.7% under ROI create a clear edge, with his 1.1 average consistently falling short of typical 1.3 lines offered by books.
What's Nelson Agholor's average Receptions last 10 games?
Nelson Agholor is averaging 1.1 receptions over his last 10 games compared to lines typically set around 1.3. This 0.2 reception gap below market expectations has created consistent value for under bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Nelson Agholor reception unders when lines are set at 1.5 or higher, particularly in games where Baltimore projects to run frequently or when facing defenses that limit slot receiver production effectively.