Najee Harris rushing yards props present a modest edge toward overs, with the Steelers back hitting over 54.3% of the time across 35 games. His 60.09 yard average consistently beats typical lines by 6.1 yards, generating positive ROI on overs. This represents a lean over opportunity with solid fundamentals.
Expert Analysis
The 6.1 yard differential between Harris's actual production and betting lines reveals consistent market undervaluation of his rushing volume. This edge stems from Pittsburgh's commitment to establishing the ground game regardless of game script, with Harris maintaining heavy usage even in negative game flow situations. The Steelers' offensive philosophy prioritizes ball control and time of possession, naturally inflating Harris's carry totals and creating favorable variance for over bettors. While the 54.3% over rate isn't overwhelming, it's profitable when combined with the positive yardage differential. The +3.6% ROI on overs demonstrates sustainable value, particularly given Harris's role as the clear workhorse back. However, the recent two-game under streak and Pittsburgh's evolving offensive identity under new coordinator could signal potential regression. The lack of extreme streaks (longest runs of three) suggests balanced variance rather than exploitable patterns. Harris's floor remains elevated due to his snap share and red zone touches, but ceiling games depend heavily on game script and opponent run defense rankings.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The consistent 6.1 yard edge over market lines, combined with positive over ROI, creates sustainable value on Harris rushing yards props. Target spots where Pittsburgh projects to control game flow or faces vulnerable run defenses. Primary risk involves the Steelers' potential shift toward more pass-heavy approaches and Harris's recent under trend requiring monitoring.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-11 | OPP | 39.5 | 17.0 | -22.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-04 | OPP | 45.5 | 36.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-25 | OPP | 43.5 | 74.0 | +30.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-21 | OPP | 47.5 | 42.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 54.5 | 14.0 | -40.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 64.5 | 53.0 | -11.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 61.5 | 75.0 | +13.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-21 | OPP | 67.5 | 41.0 | -26.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 51.5 | 63.0 | +11.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 65.5 | 53.0 | -12.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-28 | OPP | 62.5 | 114.0 | +51.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 54.5 | 102.0 | +47.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 58.5 | 106.0 | +47.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 68.5 | 42.0 | -26.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 66.5 | 19.0 | -47.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Rushing Yards Prop Lines
Compare Najee Harris props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Najee Harris's Rushing Yards prop record all games?
Najee Harris has gone over his rushing yards prop in 19 of 35 games (54.3%) with an average of 60.09 yards. His overs have generated a positive 3.6% ROI while unders show a -12.7% return, indicating consistent market undervaluation.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Najee Harris Rushing Yards all games?
Lean over on Najee Harris rushing yards props. His 6.1 yard average differential above typical lines and positive over ROI create sustainable value. Focus on games where Pittsburgh projects neutral or positive game script for optimal conditions.
What's Najee Harris's average Rushing Yards all games?
Najee Harris averages 60.09 rushing yards across all games, which runs 6.1 yards above the typical market line of 53.99. This consistent differential represents the core edge driving profitable over betting opportunities in his rushing props.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Harris rushing overs when Pittsburgh faces weaker run defenses or projects to control game flow. Avoid spots after the Steelers fall behind early or face elite defensive fronts that could force more passing situations.