Mike Williams has hit the over on receiving yards props in exactly half his games over the last 10 contests, posting a 5-5 record with a modest +2.1 yard average differential above his lines. The neutral ROI of -4.5% on both sides suggests minimal edge, making this a pass situation.
Expert Analysis
Mike Williams's receiving yards performance over his last 10 games reveals a player caught between roles and expectations. The 23.3-yard average against 21.2-yard lines suggests oddsmakers are pricing him slightly conservatively, but the perfectly balanced 5-5 over-under record indicates this edge is largely illusory. The -4.5% ROI on both sides confirms what the record suggests: no meaningful betting advantage exists. Williams's transition to Pittsburgh mid-season created volatility in his usage patterns, leading to the streaky nature evidenced by his longest under streak of four games followed by his current two-game over run. This inconsistency stems from his role as a complementary receiver behind George Pickens, where game script and defensive coverage dictate his involvement more than talent or opportunity. The absence of clear splits data further complicates pattern recognition, but Williams's veteran presence suggests he's more likely to exceed modest expectations when Pittsburgh faces pass-funnel defenses or trailing game scripts. However, his advanced age and adjustment period to a new system create a floor that's concerningly low for consistent over betting.
Betting Verdict
PASS with LOW confidence on any directional lean. Williams's perfectly balanced 5-5 record and negative ROI on both sides indicate no exploitable edge exists in his receiving yards market. While the slight positive differential suggests mild over value, the inconsistent usage patterns and adjustment period in Pittsburgh create too much variance for profitable betting. Wait for clearer situational spots or more favorable line movement.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-11 | OPP | 10.5 | 37.0 | +26.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-04 | OPP | 13.5 | 25.0 | +11.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-25 | OPP | 15.5 | 0.0 | -15.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-21 | OPP | 16.5 | 24.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 20.5 | 15.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-31 | OPP | 22.5 | 6.0 | -16.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-14 | OPP | 26.5 | 0.0 | -26.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 31.5 | 25.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 30.5 | 67.0 | +36.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 24.5 | 34.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Mike Williams's Receiving Yards prop record last 10 games?
Mike Williams has gone over his receiving yards prop in exactly 5 of his last 10 games, posting a 5-5 record. He's averaging 23.3 receiving yards against lines averaging 21.2 yards, creating a modest +2.1 differential that hasn't translated to profitable betting opportunities.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Mike Williams Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Pass on Mike Williams receiving yards props based on recent form. His 5-5 record and -4.5% ROI on both sides indicate no edge exists. The perfectly balanced performance suggests oddsmakers have accurately priced his current role in Pittsburgh's offense.
What's Mike Williams's average Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Mike Williams is averaging 23.3 receiving yards over his last 10 games against prop lines averaging 21.2 yards. This +2.1 differential appears favorable but hasn't generated positive returns, with both over and under bets producing -4.5% ROI.
How reliable is this trend?
Avoid betting Mike Williams receiving yards props until clearer patterns emerge. His mid-season trade to Pittsburgh created usage volatility that oddsmakers have accurately priced. Wait for specific matchup advantages against pass-funnel defenses or when Pittsburgh projects to trail significantly.