Michael Wilson's receptions have gone under in 60% of his last 10 games, posting a solid 14.6% ROI on under bets while overs have burned at -23.6%. His 2.6 average barely clears the typical 2.5 line, but the consistency of unders suggests a lean under approach.
Expert Analysis
Wilson's reception struggles stem from Arizona's evolving offensive identity and his role within it. The Cardinals have increasingly leaned on their running game and shorter passing concepts to Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride, leaving Wilson as more of a situational deep threat than a consistent target magnet. His 2.6 average receptions masks significant volatility, with the longest under streak hitting three games compared to just one game for overs. The -23.6% ROI on overs tells a clear story of inflated lines that oddsmakers haven't properly adjusted downward. Wilson's usage patterns suggest he's more boom-or-bust than the steady possession receiver his props often price him as. The Cardinals' pace of play and red zone tendencies further limit his floor, as Arizona ranks in the bottom third of pass attempts per game. When Wilson does hit overs, it's typically in negative game scripts where Arizona is forced to throw, but those situations haven't materialized consistently enough to justify backing overs at current pricing.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Wilson's 60% under rate and strong 14.6% under ROI indicate oddsmakers are consistently overvaluing his reception floor. The Cardinals' run-heavy approach and Wilson's boom-bust usage profile support targeting unders, especially when his line sits at 2.5 or higher. Main risk is a potential shootout scenario forcing Arizona into pass-heavy mode.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-28 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-21 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Michael Wilson's Receptions prop record last 10 games?
Wilson has gone 4-6 on over/under receptions props in his last 10 games, hitting under in 60% of contests. This translates to a profitable 14.6% ROI on under bets while overs have lost money at -23.6%.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Michael Wilson Receptions last 10 games?
Bet under on Wilson's receptions. His 60% under rate and 14.6% under ROI show consistent value, while overs have burned money at -23.6%. The Cardinals' run-heavy offense limits his target ceiling significantly.
What's Michael Wilson's average Receptions last 10 games?
Wilson averages 2.6 receptions over his last 10 games, just 0.1 above the typical 2.5 line. This minimal edge combined with his 60% under rate suggests oddsmakers are overvaluing his reception floor.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Wilson reception unders when his line is 2.5 or higher, especially in games where Arizona projects to control tempo. Avoid in potential shootouts where the Cardinals may be forced into pass-heavy scripts.