Michael Wilson's receiving yards props have been a goldmine for under bettors, going 4-6-0 O/U (40.0% overs) over his last 10 games with a devastating -23.6% ROI on overs versus +14.6% on unders. The Cardinals receiver averages just 31.1 yards against a 30.4 line, creating consistent value on the under despite the minimal 0.7-yard differential.
Expert Analysis
Wilson's underwhelming prop performance stems from Arizona's offensive inconsistency and his role as a complementary receiver behind Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride. The Cardinals' 40.0% over rate masks deeper issues with Wilson's target distribution, which has been erratic throughout this stretch. His 31.1-yard average barely eclipses the betting line, but the key insight lies in the frequency of his failures rather than catastrophic misses. Wilson has hit four-game under streaks, suggesting books haven't fully adjusted to his reduced involvement in Arizona's passing attack. The -23.6% ROI on overs indicates sharp money has been consistently fading Wilson props, while recreational bettors likely chase his occasional spike games. His longest over streak of just three games shows limited ceiling, while the four-game under streak demonstrates how quickly he can disappear from the gameplan. The Cardinals' offensive struggles, combined with Wilson's inconsistent target share, create a scenario where books may be overvaluing his prop based on name recognition rather than recent usage patterns.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Wilson's 4-6-0 record and brutal -23.6% over ROI make him a consistent fade candidate, though the minimal 0.7-yard line differential prevents this from being a slam dunk. Target Wilson unders when Arizona faces strong pass defenses or in games where game script favors the running game, as his complementary role makes him vulnerable to game flow changes.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-28 | OPP | 30.5 | 22.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 28.5 | 44.0 | +15.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 33.5 | 9.0 | -24.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 30.5 | 57.0 | +26.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 30.5 | 55.0 | +24.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 29.5 | 54.0 | +24.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 27.5 | 24.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 31.5 | 0.0 | -31.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 31.5 | 31.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-21 | OPP | 30.5 | 15.0 | -15.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Michael Wilson's Receiving Yards prop record last 10 games?
Wilson has gone 4-6-0 O/U on receiving yards props in his last 10 games, hitting the over just 40.0% of the time. This translates to a brutal -23.6% ROI for over bettors while unders have returned +14.6% profit during this stretch.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Michael Wilson Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Lean under on Wilson's receiving yards props. His 40.0% over rate and +14.6% under ROI over 10 games show consistent value fading his props, especially when Arizona faces strong pass defenses or in run-heavy game scripts.
What's Michael Wilson's average Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Wilson averages 31.1 receiving yards over his last 10 games compared to an average line of 30.4 yards. While the 0.7-yard differential seems minimal, his inconsistent target distribution creates more under opportunities than the numbers suggest.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Wilson unders when Arizona faces top-10 pass defenses or in games with low totals favoring ground attacks. His complementary receiver role makes him vulnerable to game script changes and reduced target shares in specific matchups.