Michael Wilson shows a solid 53.6% over rate (15-13-0) with an impressive +8.8 yard differential above his average line. Despite modest +2.3% ROI on overs, his consistent production above expectations makes him a lean over candidate in favorable matchups.
Expert Analysis
Wilson's receiving yards trend reveals a player consistently outperforming modest market expectations. His 39.75-yard average against a 30.93-yard line represents a meaningful 28.5% edge, suggesting oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his expanded role in Arizona's offense. The +8.8 differential is particularly noteworthy for a receiver who entered the season with limited NFL production history. Wilson's 53.6% over rate isn't overwhelming, but it's backed by legitimate volume increases as the Cardinals have leaned more heavily on their passing attack. The concerning element is the recent under streak and the fact that under bets show an -11.4% ROI, indicating sharp money may have identified regression spots. However, Wilson's integration into Arizona's offensive scheme appears sustainable rather than fluky. His route-running precision and red zone usage have created a reliable floor that books are still catching up to. The lack of dramatic over rates actually strengthens the case—this isn't a unsustainable hot streak but rather steady production above conservative projections. Wilson's trend appears more likely to persist than regress, especially in games where Arizona projects to throw frequently or face defensive vulnerabilities in coverage.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Wilson's consistent +8.8 yard differential above his line reflects genuine offensive integration rather than variance. Target overs in games where Arizona projects for 35+ pass attempts or faces defenses allowing high completion rates. The main risk is his recent under streak potentially indicating sharper market adjustments, but his expanded role appears sustainable long-term.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-28 | OPP | 30.5 | 22.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 28.5 | 44.0 | +15.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 33.5 | 9.0 | -24.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 30.5 | 57.0 | +26.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 30.5 | 55.0 | +24.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 29.5 | 54.0 | +24.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 27.5 | 24.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 31.5 | 0.0 | -31.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 31.5 | 31.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-21 | OPP | 30.5 | 15.0 | -15.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 37.5 | 21.0 | -16.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 36.5 | 78.0 | +41.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 45.5 | 38.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 25.5 | 64.0 | +38.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 29.5 | 31.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Receiving Yards Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Michael Wilson's Receiving Yards prop record all games?
Wilson's receiving yards prop shows a 15-13-0 record across 28 games, hitting the over 53.6% of the time. His 39.75-yard average significantly exceeds his typical 30.93-yard line, creating consistent value for over bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Michael Wilson Receiving Yards all games?
Lean over on Wilson's receiving yards props, particularly in high-volume passing games. His +8.8 yard differential above the line indicates the market hasn't fully adjusted to his expanded role in Arizona's offense.
What's Michael Wilson's average Receiving Yards all games?
Wilson averages 39.75 receiving yards per game against an average line of 30.93 yards. This +8.8 differential represents a 28.5% edge above market expectations, showing consistent production above projections.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Wilson receiving yards overs when Arizona projects for 35+ pass attempts or faces defenses allowing high completion rates. Avoid during his under streaks or when the Cardinals are heavily favored and likely to run more.