Michael Pittman has delivered exceptional over value across his last 10 games, hitting overs at a 60% clip with a +0.5 average differential above the line. The 14.6% ROI on overs signals legitimate market inefficiency that sharp bettors should target aggressively.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a clear picture of market mispricing on Michael Pittman receptions props. His 4.4 reception average consistently outpacing the 3.9 line suggests oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his expanded role in Indianapolis' passing attack. The 14.6% ROI on overs represents significant value that rarely persists this long without correction. What makes this trend particularly compelling is the consistency - even during the Colts' inconsistent season, Pittman has remained Anthony Richardson's primary target when healthy. The 6-4 over record might seem modest, but the +0.5 differential indicates he's not just barely clearing lines, he's beating them with room to spare. This isn't a volume-dependent receiver gambling on garbage time touches; Pittman earns his receptions through legitimate target share in a passing offense that, despite its struggles, still needs to move the ball through the air. The current two-game over streak suggests momentum, though regression risk exists if the market finally adjusts. The lack of significant split data actually works in bettors' favor here, as it indicates consistent performance across various game scripts and matchups rather than situational dependency.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The +0.5 differential and 14.6% ROI represent clear market value that hasn't been corrected despite a 10-game sample. Pittman's role as the Colts' primary receiving option provides a stable floor, while his ability to consistently exceed modest lines creates profitable opportunities. Primary risk is market adjustment, but until lines move meaningfully higher, the over remains the sharp play.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 4.5 | 9.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 3.5 | 6.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 3.5 | 6.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Michael Pittman's Receptions prop record last 10 games?
Michael Pittman has gone over his receptions prop in 6 of his last 10 games, hitting at a 60% rate. He's averaging 4.4 receptions against a typical line of 3.9, creating consistent value for over bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Michael Pittman Receptions last 10 games?
Bet the over on Michael Pittman receptions props. The +0.5 differential and 14.6% ROI indicate the market is consistently undervaluing his reception totals, creating profitable opportunities for disciplined over betting.
What's Michael Pittman's average Receptions last 10 games?
Michael Pittman is averaging 4.4 receptions over his last 10 games compared to an average line of 3.9. This +0.5 differential represents significant value that sharp bettors should exploit consistently.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Michael Pittman reception overs when lines remain in the 3.5-4.5 range, particularly in games where the Colts project to throw frequently. Avoid when lines adjust above 4.5 or in obvious run-heavy game scripts.