Matthew Stafford's rushing yards props have been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting at an 80% clip (8-2) over his last 10 games with a remarkable +52.7% ROI. Despite averaging just 1.6 yards against a 1.1 line, the consistency of his pocket-bound style makes this a high-conviction under play.
Expert Analysis
Stafford's rushing yard unders represent one of the most reliable trends in the NFL props market, and the underlying factors suggest this edge will persist. At 36 years old with a history of back injuries, Stafford has evolved into a pure pocket passer who rarely scrambles outside designed plays. The Rams' offensive system under Sean McVay emphasizes quick releases and rhythm passing, minimizing situations where Stafford would accumulate rushing yards through scrambles or designed runs. His 1.6-yard average against the typical 1.1 line creates a deceptive margin that appears favorable but masks the reality of his limited mobility. The 8-game under streak wasn't a fluke—it reflects a quarterback whose rushing production comes almost exclusively from kneel-downs and minimal scrambles. Stafford's pocket presence has actually improved with age, as he's learned to step up and deliver rather than roll out when pressured. The Rams' offensive line health and McVay's play-calling philosophy both support keeping Stafford stationary. Even when trailing and potentially needing to create with his legs, Stafford consistently chooses to extend plays through arm talent rather than mobility. This isn't a trend likely to reverse suddenly—it's a fundamental shift in how Stafford plays quarterback at this stage of his career.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Stafford's pocket-bound evolution at age 36 makes his rushing yards unders one of the most sustainable edges in props betting. The 80% hit rate over 10 games isn't variance—it's a reflection of his playing style and the Rams' system. Target this prop consistently, especially when the line sits at 1.5 or higher, as Stafford rarely accumulates yards through scrambles or designed runs.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 5.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-13 | OPP | 0.5 | -1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 0.5 | -1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-10 | OPP | 2.5 | -1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-01 | OPP | 3.5 | 14.0 | +10.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Rushing Yards Prop Lines
Compare Matthew Stafford props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Matthew Stafford's Rushing Yards prop record last 10 games?
Stafford has gone 2-8 on rushing yards overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 20% of the time. He's averaging 1.6 yards against a typical 1.1 line, but the under bets have generated a strong +52.7% ROI while overs have lost -61.8%.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Matthew Stafford Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Bet the under with high confidence. Stafford's 80% under rate over 10 games reflects his pocket-bound style at age 36, not random variance. The Rams' quick-rhythm offense and his injury history make rushing yards unders one of the most reliable props available.
What's Matthew Stafford's average Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Stafford averages just 1.6 rushing yards over his last 10 games against a typical line of 1.1 yards. While this appears to favor overs by 0.5 yards, the distribution heavily skews toward zero-yard performances, making unders the superior bet despite the average.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Stafford rushing yards unders consistently, especially when lines are set at 1.5 or higher. The edge is strongest in standard game scripts where the Rams aren't desperately trailing, as McVay's system keeps Stafford stationary regardless of situation.