Matthew Stafford's passing yards have gone under in 6 of his last 10 games (40% over rate), averaging 232.6 yards against a 243.2 line for a -10.6 differential. The under has delivered a solid 14.6% ROI while overs have been brutal at -23.6%. This trend points to a lean under in most spots.
Expert Analysis
Stafford's recent passing yards struggles reflect deeper structural issues with the Rams' offensive ecosystem. The veteran quarterback is averaging 10.6 yards below his closing lines, suggesting oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his declining arm strength and the team's evolving identity. The 40% over rate masks an even starker reality - when Stafford goes under, he tends to miss badly, creating the significant ROI gap. His longest under streak of four games indicates this isn't random variance but a systematic shift in how Los Angeles moves the ball. The Rams have increasingly leaned on their ground game and shorter passing concepts, limiting Stafford's ceiling outcomes. His 232.6-yard average sits well below the 250+ yard threshold needed for consistent over hits in today's NFL. The concerning trend is the persistence - even when Stafford hits an over, he rarely builds momentum, with his longest over streak capped at just two games. This suggests the underlying factors driving his yardage decline aren't temporary game script issues but fundamental changes in offensive philosophy and personnel deployment that make his props systematically overvalued.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 14.6% ROI on unders combined with Stafford averaging 10.6 yards below his lines creates a sustainable edge. The trend shows persistence rather than random variance, with his longest under streak hitting four games. Target unders when the line exceeds 240 yards, as Stafford has consistently struggled to reach those thresholds. Main risk is a potential shootout game script that forces heavy passing volume.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-19 | OPP | 211.5 | 324.0 | +112.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-13 | OPP | 240.5 | 209.0 | -31.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-28 | OPP | 234.5 | 189.0 | -45.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 244.5 | 110.0 | -134.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-12 | OPP | 242.5 | 160.0 | -82.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 254.5 | 320.0 | +65.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 260.5 | 183.0 | -77.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 243.5 | 243.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 242.5 | 295.0 | +52.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-11 | OPP | 257.5 | 293.0 | +35.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Passing Yards Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Matthew Stafford's Passing Yards prop record last 10 games?
Stafford has gone over his passing yards prop in just 4 of his last 10 games (40% rate) while going under 6 times. This 4-6 over/under record represents a significant shift toward lower passing volume outcomes.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Matthew Stafford Passing Yards last 10 games?
Bet under on Stafford's passing yards props. The under has generated a 14.6% ROI while overs have lost -23.6%. He's averaging 10.6 yards below his closing lines, indicating consistent value on the under side.
What's Matthew Stafford's average Passing Yards last 10 games?
Stafford is averaging 232.6 passing yards over his last 10 games compared to an average line of 243.2 yards. This -10.6 yard differential shows he's consistently falling short of market expectations by nearly two full completions.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Stafford under bets when his line exceeds 240 yards, as he's struggled to reach higher thresholds consistently. Avoid betting his props in obvious shootout spots where game script could force heavy passing volume.