Matthew Stafford's passing touchdown props have delivered modest over value across his last 10 games, hitting 6-4 (60%) with a +14.6% ROI on overs. Despite averaging exactly 1.5 touchdowns against the standard 1.5 line, the slight over edge suggests lean over in favorable matchups.
Expert Analysis
Stafford's touchdown production reveals a quarterback operating in a balanced offensive system that creates consistent but not explosive scoring opportunities. The 60% over rate with exactly average production indicates the market may be slightly undervaluing his touchdown upside in certain game scripts. The Rams' offensive coordinator has utilized Stafford effectively in red zone situations, though the team's reliance on multiple receiving threats means touchdown distribution can vary significantly week to week. The +14.6% ROI on overs suggests profitable spots exist when identifying favorable defensive matchups or game flow scenarios. However, the modest differential between his average and the line indicates this isn't a dominant trend requiring heavy investment. Stafford's age and the Rams' commitment to establishing a ground game in certain situations can limit his touchdown ceiling, particularly in games where they establish early leads. The recent two-game over streak shouldn't drive decision-making, as his longest streaks in either direction have been relatively short, indicating game-specific factors matter more than momentum. The key lies in identifying spots where the Rams will need to throw frequently or face defenses vulnerable to multiple touchdown passes.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 60% hit rate and positive ROI provide a slight edge, though the exact line match suggests careful spot selection is crucial. Target games where the Rams face weaker pass defenses or negative game scripts that force increased passing volume. The main risk is Stafford's tendency to distribute touchdowns across multiple receivers, making individual game variance significant despite the overall positive trend.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-28 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Matthew Stafford's Passing TDs prop record last 10 games?
Stafford has gone over his passing touchdowns prop 6 times in his last 10 games (60% rate), going under 4 times. This 6-4 over record has generated a +14.6% ROI for over bettors during this stretch.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Matthew Stafford Passing TDs last 10 games?
Lean over on Stafford's passing touchdowns props. The 60% over rate and positive ROI provide a slight edge, particularly in games against weaker pass defenses or when the Rams are likely to throw frequently due to game script.
What's Matthew Stafford's average Passing TDs last 10 games?
Stafford has averaged exactly 1.5 passing touchdowns over his last 10 games, matching the standard prop line perfectly. This neutral differential suggests the market prices him accurately but creates opportunities in favorable matchups.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Stafford touchdown overs against defenses ranking bottom-10 in passing touchdowns allowed or when the Rams are road underdogs likely to face negative game scripts requiring increased passing volume throughout the contest.