Mark Andrews has quietly delivered exceptional value on reception overs across his last 10 games, hitting at a 60% clip while averaging 3.8 catches against 3.3 lines. The +0.5 differential and 14.6% ROI on overs signals consistent undervaluation by oddsmakers.
Expert Analysis
The Ravens tight end has become one of the most reliable over plays in the league, consistently exceeding modest reception expectations. Andrews' 3.8 average against 3.3 lines reveals a systematic undervaluation by books who appear anchored to his injury-plagued 2023 campaign rather than his current role as Lamar Jackson's primary safety valve. The 60% over rate isn't just noise—it reflects Baltimore's offensive evolution toward shorter, more reliable passing concepts that heavily feature their All-Pro tight end. Andrews' target share has stabilized in a sweet spot where he's getting enough volume to consistently clear low-to-mid reception totals without the volatility of being force-fed. The +14.6% ROI on overs demonstrates genuine market inefficiency, while the brutal -23.6% under ROI shows how consistently wrong fade plays have been. What makes this trend particularly sustainable is that Andrews isn't dependent on big games to hit overs—he's methodically clearing modest bars through steady target volume. The lack of extreme variance in either direction suggests this isn't a hot streak but rather proper market adjustment lagging behind Andrews' restored health and refined role in Baltimore's offense.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The market continues undervaluing Andrews' consistent target volume in Baltimore's pass-heavy approach, creating sustainable value on modest reception totals. Target games where the Ravens face competent defenses that force more passing attempts rather than blowout spots where they lean heavily on the ground game. Primary risk is game script turning overwhelmingly run-heavy early.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-19 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-11 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-04 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-25 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-21 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 3.5 | 6.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-25 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-07 | OPP | 3.5 | 6.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Receptions Prop Lines
Compare Mark Andrews props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Mark Andrews's Receptions prop record last 10 games?
Mark Andrews has gone over his receptions prop in 6 of his last 10 games for a 60% success rate. He's averaging 3.8 receptions against typical lines of 3.3, showing consistent value on the over side.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Mark Andrews Receptions last 10 games?
Lean over on Mark Andrews receptions props. The 60% hit rate and +14.6% ROI on overs shows genuine market inefficiency. Target games with competitive game scripts that require Baltimore to throw consistently throughout.
What's Mark Andrews's average Receptions last 10 games?
Mark Andrews is averaging 3.8 receptions over his last 10 games compared to typical lines around 3.3. This +0.5 differential represents consistent value, as he's regularly exceeding modest market expectations.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Andrews reception overs in competitive games where Baltimore will need to throw consistently. Avoid spots where the Ravens project to build big early leads and lean heavily on their ground game throughout.