Mark Andrews has delivered exceptional over value in his last 10 games, hitting the over at a 70% clip (7-3-0) while averaging 47.2 receiving yards against a 37.4 average line. This +9.8 differential represents genuine market inefficiency, making the over the clear lean.
Expert Analysis
The Ravens tight end has consistently outperformed market expectations, generating a remarkable +33.6% ROI on overs while decimating under bettors with -42.7% returns. This isn't random variance—it reflects Andrews' role as Lamar Jackson's most reliable target in Baltimore's evolving passing attack. The 9.8-yard average differential suggests oddsmakers are anchoring to Andrews' injury-plagued 2023 season rather than his current production level. His target share has stabilized as the Ravens lean more heavily on intermediate passing concepts, particularly in crucial down-and-distance situations where Andrews thrives. The consistency is striking: even during his longest under streak of just one game, he bounced back immediately. This pattern indicates sustainable usage rather than unsustainable efficiency spikes. However, regression concerns are valid given the sample size, and game script dependency remains Andrews' biggest risk factor. Baltimore's rushing dominance can limit passing volume, though Andrews typically maintains floor production through red zone looks. The market appears slow to adjust to his restored health and chemistry with Jackson, creating ongoing value opportunities for sharp bettors willing to back the trend.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Andrews' 70% over rate combined with the significant +9.8 yard differential suggests genuine market mispricing rather than luck. The ideal conditions involve competitive game scripts where Baltimore needs to throw, particularly in divisional matchups or against strong rushing defenses. Main risk is game flow turning into a Ravens blowout early, limiting passing attempts and capping Andrews' ceiling at his modest floor production.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-19 | OPP | 42.5 | 61.0 | +18.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-11 | OPP | 45.5 | 27.0 | -18.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-04 | OPP | 33.5 | 54.0 | +20.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-25 | OPP | 36.5 | 68.0 | +31.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-21 | OPP | 35.5 | 37.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 35.5 | 24.0 | -11.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 32.5 | 67.0 | +34.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-25 | OPP | 32.5 | 44.0 | +11.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 36.5 | 22.0 | -14.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-07 | OPP | 43.5 | 68.0 | +24.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Receiving Yards Prop Lines
Compare Mark Andrews props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Mark Andrews's Receiving Yards prop record last 10 games?
Mark Andrews has gone over his receiving yards prop in 7 of his last 10 games (70% rate), averaging 47.2 yards against a 37.4 average line for a +9.8 differential.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Mark Andrews Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Lean over on Mark Andrews receiving yards props. The 70% over rate and +9.8 average differential indicate market undervaluation, though game script dependency requires selective timing.
What's Mark Andrews's average Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Andrews has averaged 47.2 receiving yards over his last 10 games compared to an average line of 37.4 yards, creating a significant +9.8 yard edge per game.
How reliable is this trend?
Target competitive games where Baltimore will need to throw consistently. Avoid spots against weak opponents where the Ravens might establish early leads and lean heavily on their ground game.