Mark Andrews delivers modest value on receiving yards overs in home games, hitting 53.3% with an 8-7-0 record across 15 contests. His 43.73-yard average beats the typical 40.57 line by 3.2 yards, generating a slim +1.8% ROI. This represents a lean over opportunity rather than a strong edge.
Expert Analysis
Andrews' home receiving yards performance reveals a tight-margin edge rooted in Baltimore's offensive rhythm at M&T Bank Stadium. The 53.3% over rate suggests books are pricing his home props efficiently, but the consistent 3.2-yard average differential indicates oddsmakers may be slightly undervaluing his home production. The modest +1.8% over ROI reflects this narrow but persistent edge, while the brutal -10.9% under ROI warns against fading Andrews at home. His home splits likely benefit from familiar surroundings, crowd energy lifting the Ravens' passing attack, and potentially more aggressive game scripts when Baltimore controls tempo. However, the sample size of 15 games demands caution, and the recent streak of one under suggests natural variance rather than a fundamental shift. The longest over streak of four games and under streak of three games indicates this trend operates within normal fluctuation ranges. Andrews' role as Lamar Jackson's primary red-zone target becomes more pronounced at home, where the Ravens historically perform better offensively. The key risk lies in the narrow margins—this isn't a dominant trend but rather a slight systematic advantage that requires proper line shopping and selective spots.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Andrews' home receiving yards props offer a modest but measurable edge, with his 43.73-yard average consistently exceeding typical lines by 3.2 yards. The 53.3% hit rate combined with positive ROI suggests sustainable value, though margins are tight. Target this trend when lines sit at 40 yards or below, and avoid when inflated above 42 yards. The primary risk is variance overwhelming the small edge in short samples.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-11 | OPP | 45.5 | 27.0 | -18.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-04 | OPP | 33.5 | 54.0 | +20.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-21 | OPP | 35.5 | 37.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 32.5 | 67.0 | +34.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-07 | OPP | 43.5 | 68.0 | +24.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 30.5 | 26.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 24.5 | 66.0 | +41.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 29.5 | 0.0 | -29.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 40.5 | 51.0 | +10.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-28 | OPP | 32.5 | 15.0 | -17.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-16 | OPP | 57.5 | 23.0 | -34.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 45.5 | 44.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-05 | OPP | 51.5 | 80.0 | +28.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-22 | OPP | 53.5 | 63.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
| 2023-09-24 | OPP | 52.5 | 35.0 | -17.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Mark Andrews's Receiving Yards prop record home games?
Mark Andrews has an 8-7-0 over/under record on receiving yards props in home games across 15 contests, hitting overs at a 53.3% rate. This translates to a modest +1.8% ROI on over bets while unders have produced a devastating -10.9% return.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Mark Andrews Receiving Yards home games?
Lean over on Andrews' home receiving yards props, but be selective. His 43.73-yard home average beats typical 40.57 lines by 3.2 yards consistently. Target lines at 40 yards or below for maximum value, and avoid when books inflate to 42+ yards.
What's Mark Andrews's average Receiving Yards home games?
Andrews averages 43.73 receiving yards in home games compared to typical prop lines of 40.57 yards, creating a positive 3.2-yard differential. This consistent gap above market expectations drives the modest but measurable over value in home contests.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Andrews' receiving yards overs when home lines sit at 40 yards or below, ideally in prime-time games where Ravens offense typically performs better. Avoid betting when lines inflate above 42 yards or when Baltimore faces elite pass defenses.