Mack Hollins has delivered one of the most consistent under trends in the NFL, hitting the under in 9 of his last 10 games with a devastating -80.9% ROI on overs. The Bills receiver averages just 1.3 receptions against a 2.0 line, creating a 0.7 reception deficit that screams systematic undervaluation by oddsmakers.
Expert Analysis
Mack Hollins operates as Buffalo's clear fourth receiving option behind Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, and Dawson Knox, relegating him to a complementary role that rarely demands high target volume. His 1.3 reception average against a consistent 2.0 line reveals a fundamental disconnect between his actual usage and market expectations. The Bills' offensive system prioritizes efficiency over target distribution, with Josh Allen frequently targeting his primary weapons rather than spreading the ball to role players like Hollins. This trend shows remarkable persistence across different game scripts and opponents, suggesting it's driven by structural factors rather than temporary circumstances. The 90% under rate indicates oddsmakers haven't adequately adjusted to Hollins' limited target share in Buffalo's hierarchy. His role as primarily a blocking receiver and occasional deep threat creates feast-or-famine scenarios, but the feast rarely comes in terms of reception volume. The single over in this sample appears to be an outlier rather than evidence of emerging change, as Buffalo's offensive philosophy remains unchanged and Hollins continues operating in the same limited capacity that has defined this trend.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Hollins' 90% under rate reflects his genuine role limitations in Buffalo's offense, not a statistical anomaly. The 0.7 reception deficit per game creates consistent value on unders when the line sits at 2.0 or higher. Target this prop when Buffalo faces strong defenses that force shorter possessions, limiting overall opportunities for complementary receivers like Hollins to accumulate volume.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-08 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Mack Hollins's Receptions prop record last 10 games?
Mack Hollins has gone under his receptions prop in 9 of his last 10 games, posting a brutal 1-9-0 over/under record. This 10% over rate represents one of the most consistent under trends among NFL receivers this season.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Mack Hollins Receptions last 10 games?
Bet the under on Hollins receptions props with high confidence. His 90% under rate and -0.7 average differential against the line create consistent value, especially when the line sits at 2.0 or higher in his complementary Bills role.
What's Mack Hollins's average Receptions last 10 games?
Hollins averages just 1.3 receptions over his last 10 games compared to a typical 2.0 line, creating a significant -0.7 deficit. This gap reflects his limited role as Buffalo's fourth receiving option behind established targets.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Hollins under props when Buffalo faces strong defenses or in potential blowout scenarios where the Bills may rely heavily on their top weapons. His complementary role makes him most vulnerable when target opportunities become scarce.