Mack Hollins has delivered exceptional over value in receiving yards props, hitting the over in 7 of his last 10 games (70.0% rate) with a massive +8.3 yard differential above his average line. The Buffalo receiver's consistent production and +33.6% ROI make his overs a compelling trend to follow.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a compelling story about Mack Hollins' evolving role in Buffalo's offense. Averaging 26.1 receiving yards against lines typically set around 17.8 yards represents a significant market inefficiency that sharp bettors should exploit. This 46.6% premium over his betting line suggests oddsmakers are consistently undervaluing Hollins' involvement in the Bills' passing attack. The 70% over rate across 10 games provides substantial sample size confidence, while the +33.6% ROI demonstrates real profit potential rather than just win rate inflation. Hollins has found his niche as a reliable target in Buffalo's high-powered offense, benefiting from the attention drawn by Stefon Diggs and other primary weapons. His 4-game over streak earlier in this sample shows he can sustain hot stretches, while his longest under streak maxed at just 2 games, indicating strong baseline involvement. The consistency factor is crucial here - Hollins isn't boom-or-bust but rather a steady contributor whose floor appears higher than books recognize. This trend reflects a player whose role has stabilized at a level that betting markets haven't fully adjusted to, creating ongoing value opportunities.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 70% hit rate and +8.3 yard differential above lines create clear value, though the limited context data prevents a high-confidence rating. Target Hollins receiving yards overs when his line sits in the 15-20 yard range, where the historical edge is strongest. The main risk is potential role regression if Buffalo's offensive hierarchy shifts, but current production trends favor continued over performance.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-26 | OPP | 13.5 | 73.0 | +59.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-19 | OPP | 14.5 | 12.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-12 | OPP | 13.5 | 19.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 17.5 | 33.0 | +15.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 23.5 | 27.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 25.5 | 27.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 13.5 | 5.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-12 | OPP | 17.5 | 0.0 | -17.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-05 | OPP | 14.5 | 36.0 | +21.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-08 | OPP | 24.5 | 29.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Receiving Yards Prop Lines
Compare Mack Hollins props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Mack Hollins's Receiving Yards prop record last 10 games?
Mack Hollins has gone over his receiving yards prop in 7 of his last 10 games, posting a 70% over rate. His record stands at 7-3-0 with strong consistency, hitting just one recent under before returning to form.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Mack Hollins Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Bet the over on Mack Hollins receiving yards. His 70% over rate, +8.3 yard differential above typical lines, and +33.6% ROI create clear value. The trend shows consistency rather than random variance, making overs the smart play.
What's Mack Hollins's average Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Mack Hollins averages 26.1 receiving yards over his last 10 games compared to typical betting lines around 17.8 yards. This 8.3-yard differential represents a 46.6% premium, indicating significant market undervaluation of his production.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Hollins receiving yards overs when his line sits between 15-20 yards, where his historical edge is strongest. Focus on games where Buffalo projects for higher passing volume, as his role benefits from increased offensive tempo and attempts.