Mac Jones has delivered modest rushing value over his last 10 games, averaging 11.7 yards against a 7.4-yard line for a +4.3 differential. The 5-5 over/under record reflects inconsistency, but the substantial yardage edge suggests books are undervaluing his scrambling ability. Lean Over on future props.
Expert Analysis
Mac Jones's rushing prop presents an intriguing inefficiency where his actual production significantly exceeds market expectations. The 11.7-yard average against a 7.4-yard line represents a 58% premium over the book's assessment, indicating either outdated pricing models or systematic undervaluation of his mobility. This differential is particularly noteworthy for a quarterback traditionally viewed as pocket-oriented, suggesting his rushing attempts have become more situational and effective. The even 5-5 over/under split masks the underlying value, as the average differential heavily favors the over despite the mixed results. Jones's rushing production likely stems from designed rollouts, scrambles under pressure, and short-yardage situations where Jacksonville utilizes his size effectively. The consistency of this edge across 10 games suggests it's not merely variance but a genuine market adjustment lag. However, the negative ROI on both sides indicates juice is eating into profits, making selective betting crucial. The trend's sustainability depends on Jacksonville's offensive philosophy and Jones's continued willingness to use his legs when necessary.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The +4.3 yard differential over 10 games represents genuine value that books haven't fully adjusted to. Jones's rushing production appears systematically undervalued, particularly in situations requiring mobility. However, the 50% hit rate and negative ROI demand selectivity. Target games where Jacksonville faces pressure or needs short-yardage conversions, as these scenarios maximize Jones's rushing opportunities.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 8.5 | 22.0 | +13.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 7.5 | 0.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 7.5 | 29.0 | +21.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 6.5 | 3.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 10.5 | 7.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 6.5 | 8.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 4.5 | 25.0 | +20.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-05 | OPP | 6.5 | 3.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-01 | OPP | 7.5 | 7.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-24 | OPP | 8.5 | 13.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Rushing Yards Prop Lines
Compare Mac Jones props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Mac Jones's Rushing Yards prop record last 10 games?
Mac Jones has gone 5-5 on rushing yards overs in his last 10 games, hitting exactly 50% of over bets. While the record appears even, he's averaged 11.7 yards against a 7.4-yard line, creating a notable +4.3 differential that favors over bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Mac Jones Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Lean over on Mac Jones rushing yards props. Despite the 5-5 record, his 11.7-yard average significantly exceeds the typical 7.4-yard line. The market appears to undervalue his mobility, though selective betting is crucial given the negative ROI on both sides.
What's Mac Jones's average Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Mac Jones averages 11.7 rushing yards over his last 10 games compared to a typical 7.4-yard prop line. This +4.3 differential represents a 58% premium over market expectations, suggesting books are undervaluing his scrambling ability in Jacksonville's system.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Mac Jones rushing yard overs when Jacksonville faces defensive pressure or needs short-yardage conversions. These situations maximize his scrambling opportunities. Avoid betting during obvious passing game scripts where he's likely to stay in the pocket throughout the contest.